Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery over the past week, climbing toward the $108,000 mark amid a modest rebound in the broader cryptocurrency market. Despite this upward movement, on-chain indicators suggest that bullish momentum may be short-lived. Emerging sell-side pressure from miners and long-term holders (LTHs) could soon challenge Bitcoin’s recent gains, potentially pushing its price below $105,000 in the near term.
Growing Sell-Side Pressure Signals Market Weakness
One of the most telling on-chain metrics, Apparent Demand, has recently turned negative—indicating that buyer demand is failing to absorb the increasing supply entering the market. According to data from CryptoQuant, BTC’s Apparent Demand, measured using a 30-day simple moving average (SMA), currently sits at -36.98.
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This metric evaluates the balance between new market demand and two primary sources of supply: newly mined Bitcoin and coins spent by long-term holders who had previously remained inactive. A negative reading means more Bitcoin is being sold into the market than new buyers are willing or able to purchase—a classic sign of weakening demand.
This trend reflects lingering market uncertainty, partly fueled by recent geopolitical tensions involving Israel, Iran, and the United States. Although these tensions have begun to ease, their impact on investor sentiment persists, contributing to cautious trading behavior and reduced capital inflows.
Bearish Sentiment Confirmed by Derivatives Market
Further reinforcing this cautious outlook is Bitcoin’s current long/short ratio, which stands at 0.96. This figure, tracked across major derivatives platforms, reveals that short positions now outnumber long positions—meaning more traders are betting on a price decline than an increase.
When an asset’s long/short ratio falls below 1.0, it signals growing bearish sentiment. In Bitcoin’s case, this imbalance suggests that market participants expect downward pressure in the coming days. Such sentiment often precedes actual price corrections, especially when combined with weakening on-chain fundamentals.
The convergence of on-chain data and derivatives market positioning paints a consistent picture: demand for Bitcoin is currently outpaced by supply, and trader psychology is leaning toward caution or outright pessimism.
Key Support Levels in Focus
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $108,102**. While this level appears stable for now, it faces increasing risk if buyer demand does not strengthen soon. The immediate support zone lies around **$107,745—a level that will be critical in determining whether BTC can maintain its current range.
Should selling pressure intensify and this support fail, Bitcoin could experience a sharper correction, potentially dipping below $105,000** and testing the **$104,709 level. Such a move would mark a significant pullback from recent highs and may trigger further liquidations in leveraged positions.
On the other hand, a resurgence in buying activity could shift the narrative. If demand picks up and sustained volume returns to the market, Bitcoin might reclaim the $109,304 resistance level** and aim for a retest of its all-time high near **$111,917.
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Core Keywords Driving Market Analysis
Understanding Bitcoin’s price trajectory requires attention to several key factors:
- Bitcoin price prediction
- BTC on-chain data
- Apparent Demand
- Long/short ratio
- Market sentiment
- Supply and demand imbalance
- Support and resistance levels
- Cryptocurrency market volatility
These terms not only define the current discussion but also align with what investors and traders are actively searching for online. By integrating them naturally into analysis, we ensure both SEO relevance and informational value.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does a negative Apparent Demand mean for Bitcoin?
A: A negative Apparent Demand indicates that more Bitcoin is being sold—either through mining rewards or long-term holder activity—than new buyers are absorbing. This imbalance typically precedes price corrections due to excess supply.
Q: Why is the long/short ratio important for predicting price movements?
A: The long/short ratio reflects trader positioning in futures markets. A ratio below 1 suggests more traders are betting on a price drop, which can amplify downward momentum if bearish sentiment spreads.
Q: Can Bitcoin recover if it drops below $105,000?
A: Yes. While a drop below $105,000 would signal short-term weakness, recovery is possible if institutional inflows return or macroeconomic conditions improve. Historical patterns show that sharp dips often create buying opportunities.
Q: How reliable are on-chain metrics like Apparent Demand?
A: On-chain metrics are highly reliable because they reflect actual blockchain activity rather than speculation. When combined with price action and derivatives data, they offer a comprehensive view of market health.
Q: What events could reverse the current bearish trend?
A: A surge in spot volume, renewed institutional interest (such as ETF inflows), or positive macroeconomic news (like rate cuts) could reignite demand and shift sentiment back to bullish.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: This depends on individual risk tolerance and investment strategy. While current indicators suggest caution, pullbacks often present entry opportunities for long-term investors. Always conduct independent research before making decisions.
Final Outlook: Caution Ahead
While Bitcoin’s recent rebound to nearly $108,000 offers a glimmer of optimism, underlying data suggests that the rally lacks strong foundational support. With Apparent Demand in negative territory and derivatives markets skewed toward short positions, the path of least resistance may be downward in the short term.
Investors should closely monitor key technical levels:
- Support: $107,745 → $104,709
- Resistance: $109,304 → $111,917
A break below support increases the likelihood of a deeper correction. Conversely, a confirmed move above resistance could restore bullish momentum.
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Regardless of direction, maintaining awareness of on-chain dynamics and sentiment indicators will be crucial for navigating this phase of heightened volatility. As always in crypto markets, preparation and disciplined risk management remain essential.