The 2024 U.S. presidential election has concluded, and one striking observation has emerged from the financial markets: Bitcoin traded just above $70,000 during the election period**. This isn’t just a random price point—it could mark a historic shift in Bitcoin’s long-term valuation. Analysts and market observers are now suggesting that **$70,000 may become a permanent floor for Bitcoin, never to be seen again on the downside. But why?
Historically, U.S. election cycles have coincided with pivotal turning points in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Each election year has established a new baseline—a price level that Bitcoin has never revisited in the years that followed. If past patterns hold true, the 2024 election-day price of $70,110 could become the next irreversible support level.
The Election Effect: A Historical Pattern
To understand why $70,000 might be a one-way door, we need to look back at how Bitcoin has behaved during previous U.S. presidential elections.
2012: The Humble Beginning
On election day in 2012, Bitcoin was trading at just **$10**. At the time, cryptocurrency was a niche curiosity with minimal adoption. Yet, that $10 mark became a psychological milestone—and one Bitcoin has never come close to revisiting.
2016: The First Major Leap
By the next presidential election in 2016, Bitcoin had surged to **$710**. This represented a 70x increase in just four years. More importantly, like in 2012, Bitcoin never traded at or below that level again. The $710 price point became a long-term floor.
2020: Institutional Entry and Market Maturation
In 2020, Bitcoin was trading around **$13,555** on election day. What’s remarkable is that even during the brutal 2022 bear market—when many altcoins lost over 80% of their value—**Bitcoin never dropped below this level**. In fact, $13,555 acted as strong support, reinforcing the idea that election-year prices establish durable price floors.
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Now, in 2024, Bitcoin’s average price during the election hovered around $70,110. Given the consistency of this four-election trend, many analysts believe this level will follow suit—becoming a permanent support zone.
Why $70,000 Could Be a New Floor
Several macroeconomic and market-driven factors support the idea that Bitcoin will not fall below $70,000 again:
1. Institutional Adoption Is Now Irreversible
Unlike in 2016 or even 2020, Bitcoin is now held on corporate balance sheets (e.g., MicroStrategy), integrated into financial products (e.g., spot Bitcoin ETFs), and recognized as a strategic reserve asset by nation-states. This level of adoption creates structural demand that didn’t exist in previous cycles.
2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Have Changed the Game
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 opened the floodgates for traditional finance (TradFi) capital. These ETFs have already amassed over 750,000 BTC in holdings—equivalent to roughly 3.8% of total supply. This constant buying pressure from ETFs acts as a shock absorber during downturns.
3. Supply Scarcity Is Increasing
Bitcoin’s halving in April 2024 reduced new supply entering the market by 50%. With demand rising and supply constrained, basic economics suggest upward price pressure will dominate over time.
4. Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty Persists
Despite short-term volatility, long-term macro trends—such as currency devaluation, geopolitical instability, and growing national debts—continue to drive investors toward hard assets. Bitcoin, increasingly viewed as “digital gold,” benefits from this flight to scarcity.
Current Market Momentum
As of now, Bitcoin is trading above $73,200**, having surged nearly 10% in a single 24-hour period. This rally pushed Bitcoin to an intraday high of **$75,358, surpassing its previous all-time high of $73,737 set in March 2024.
While some profit-taking has led to a slight pullback, the overall momentum remains bullish. Analysts expect the uptrend to resume, with $80,000 a realistic target before the end of November, especially if institutional inflows continue.
This sustained upward movement further strengthens the argument that lower prices are being left behind permanently.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Will Bitcoin ever drop below $70,000 again?
Based on historical trends from past U.S. elections, once Bitcoin establishes a price level during an election year, it has never revisited it. Given the increased institutional demand and ETF-driven buying, a drop below $70,000 appears increasingly unlikely.
What caused Bitcoin’s recent surge above $75,000?
The rally was fueled by strong ETF inflows, positive macro sentiment, and anticipation around post-election regulatory clarity. Increased trading volume and short squeezes also contributed to the rapid price increase.
How do U.S. elections impact Bitcoin’s price?
While not directly causal, U.S. elections often coincide with shifts in regulatory sentiment and macroeconomic policy. These changes influence investor behavior and capital flows into assets like Bitcoin. The timing aligns with new market cycles and psychological price anchoring.
Is $70,110 a guaranteed support level?
No price level is guaranteed in financial markets. However, the consistency of this pattern across four consecutive elections—combined with growing market maturity—makes $70K a highly probable long-term floor.
Could another crash bring Bitcoin lower?
Even during severe bear markets (e.g., 2022), Bitcoin held above prior election-year prices. With stronger fundamentals today—including ETFs and global adoption—the downside risk is significantly reduced.
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Looking Ahead: The Path to $80,000 and Beyond
With momentum building and technical indicators favoring further gains, Bitcoin is well-positioned to test $80,000 in the coming weeks. Key drivers include:
- Continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs
- Growing retail participation
- Positive on-chain metrics (e.g., rising active addresses, declining exchange reserves)
- Favorable post-election regulatory expectations
Even in a conservative scenario, most analysts agree that any dip is likely to find strong buying interest near $70,000–$72,000, reinforcing its role as a psychological and structural support zone.
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