Hedera (HBAR) has recently undergone a dramatic shift in momentum, with its price plunging by over 56% from recent highs. After a powerful rally that saw HBAR surge nearly 900% from November 2024 to an all-time peak of $0.392 in December, the market now faces uncertainty. A sharp reversal in early February triggered a flash crash down to $0.177, raising concerns about the asset’s long-term trajectory.
Currently, HBAR is testing a critical support zone near $0.25—the lower boundary of a well-established horizontal trading range that has held since December 2024. Whether this level holds or breaks could determine whether the downtrend continues or if a recovery phase begins.
HBAR’s Key Horizontal Range: $0.25 to $0.37
Since late 2024, Hedera’s price action has been confined within a clear consolidation zone between $0.250** and **$0.370. This range has been repeatedly validated, making it a reliable technical structure for traders analyzing future moves.
On January 17, 2025, HBAR briefly pushed beyond this range, reaching a cycle high of $0.401, fueled by strong market sentiment and increased network adoption. However, the breakout failed to sustain, and a swift correction followed.
The most significant drop occurred on February 3, when HBAR appeared to break below the $0.25 support, plunging to a low of **$0.177 amid heavy selling pressure and liquidations. Yet, in a surprising turn, the price mounted a robust recovery—gaining over 53%** from the bottom—before reclaiming the $0.25 level and forming a bullish hammer candlestick pattern.
This reversal candle is traditionally seen as a sign of potential trend exhaustion and buyer intervention at key support levels. Now, HBAR is retesting $0.25 as support once again, setting the stage for a pivotal decision point.
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Technical Indicators Signal Caution
Despite the encouraging price bounce, technical indicators paint a more cautious picture. On the daily chart:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating bearish momentum.
- The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is still below zero, reinforcing downward pressure.
This creates a mixed signal: while price action shows strength near support, momentum indicators suggest sellers remain in control. As a result, traders should remain vigilant—especially if volume fails to pick up during any attempted rally.
Bearish Wave Count Suggests Further Downside
Beyond short-term price patterns, Elliott Wave analysis presents a decisively bearish outlook for HBAR.
According to wave theory, Hedera appears to have completed a five-wave bullish impulse (labeled in white), which typically marks the end of an uptrend. The current movement is interpreted as the beginning of a corrective A-B-C structure (in black), commonly seen during market pullbacks.
What Does the A-B-C Correction Mean?
- Wave A: The initial drop from $0.401 to $0.177.
- Wave B: The ongoing bounce that reclaimed $0.25—potentially extending toward $0.35 if bullish momentum strengthens temporarily.
- Wave C: Expected to follow Wave B and likely drive prices to deeper lows.
The projected target for the end of Wave C lies around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which calculates to approximately $0.086, based on the length of the prior uptrend.
If this projection holds, HBAR could see additional downside through April 2025, before any sustainable recovery begins.
However, it's important to note that wave counts are interpretive and require confirmation. A breakout above $0.403 would invalidate this bearish scenario and suggest that the fifth wave of the bull market is still extending—keeping new highs in play.
Is This Just a Relief Rally?
Given the sharp decline and subsequent rebound, many analysts view the current bounce as a relief rally rather than the start of a new uptrend.
Relief rallies often occur after steep sell-offs, providing temporary optimism but ultimately failing to reverse the broader trend—especially when fundamental or technical drivers remain weak.
Several factors support this interpretation:
- High leverage liquidations during the Feb 3 crash suggest fragile market structure.
- On-chain data shows declining active addresses and transaction volume.
- Broader crypto markets remain volatile amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Unless HBAR regains and sustains trading above $0.37—the upper range resistance—traders should treat any upward movement with skepticism.
Core Keywords and Market Outlook
The key themes shaping HBAR’s current narrative include:
- Hedera price prediction
- HBAR technical analysis
- Hedera support level
- HBAR price forecast 2025
- Cryptocurrency bearish pattern
- HBAR trading range
- Hedera market trend
- HBAR price recovery
These keywords reflect strong search intent around HBAR’s price direction, technical outlook, and long-term viability—especially among traders assessing entry or exit points.
While sentiment remains divided, the balance of evidence leans bearish in the short term. However, Hedera’s underlying technology—its enterprise-grade distributed ledger, low fees, and ESG focus—could provide long-term value if market conditions improve.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the significance of the $0.25 support level for HBAR?
The $0.25 level is crucial because it marks the lower boundary of HBAR’s long-term horizontal trading range since December 2024. A break below this level could trigger further selling and signal the start of a deeper correction toward $0.15 or lower.
Can HBAR still reach new highs in 2025?
It's possible but unlikely under current conditions. For HBAR to reach new highs, it must first reclaim $0.37 and then break above $0.403 to invalidate the bearish wave count. Strong positive catalysts—such as major partnership announcements or increased on-chain activity—would also be needed.
What does a bullish hammer candle mean for HBAR?
A bullish hammer suggests that buyers stepped in aggressively after a sharp decline, rejecting lower prices. While not a guarantee of reversal, it increases the probability of a short-term bounce—especially when it occurs at key support like $0.25.
What is the worst-case price target for HBAR?
Based on Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci retracement levels, the worst-case target for Wave C completion is around $0.086. This represents a deep correction but aligns with historical patterns seen in other altcoins after parabolic runs.
How reliable is technical analysis for HBAR?
Technical analysis is widely used for short-to-medium-term trading decisions and works best when combined with volume data and on-chain metrics. While not foolproof, patterns like horizontal ranges, candlestick formations, and wave structures have proven effective in predicting HBAR’s past movements.
Should I buy HBAR now?
This depends on your risk tolerance and investment horizon. Short-term traders may wait for confirmation—such as a close above $0.37—before entering. Long-term investors might consider dollar-cost averaging if they believe in Hedera’s technology despite market volatility.
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Final Thoughts
Hedera (HBAR) stands at a crossroads. After an explosive rally in late 2024, the asset has entered a corrective phase marked by sharp declines and uncertain momentum. While the bounce from $0.177 offers temporary hope, bearish indicators and wave patterns suggest further downside may lie ahead.
The $0.25 support level will be decisive in determining whether HBAR stabilizes or enters a deeper bear market. Traders should monitor price action closely, especially any moves toward $0.35 or rejection at resistance levels.
Ultimately, patience and risk management are key—whether you're watching for a breakdown or hoping for a resurgence in this high-potential digital asset.