Bitcoin (BTC) has made a powerful comeback, rebounding from near $75,000 to surpass $84,000 in a matter of days. This sharp recovery follows a sudden policy shift in the U.S. trade landscape, reigniting bullish momentum in the crypto market. As confidence returns, traders are rapidly shifting their positions — abandoning bearish bets and flooding into high-strike call options, with the $100,000 call option emerging as the most popular trade on Deribit.
The renewed optimism isn't just speculative noise — it's backed by measurable shifts in derivatives markets, sentiment indicators, and institutional positioning. Let’s break down the key signals showing that Bitcoin bulls are firmly back in control.
Trump’s Tariff Retreat Sparks Risk-On Rally
The catalyst behind Bitcoin’s rebound lies in shifting macroeconomic sentiment. Initially, markets were rattled when the Trump administration announced sweeping new tariffs, including up to 125% duties on Chinese imports, sparking fears of a global trade war. Bitcoin briefly dipped, reflecting risk-off behavior.
However, within days, the White House walked back key measures — notably exempting smartphones and other tech products from new tariffs. While former President Trump later denied any "concession," financial markets interpreted the move as a de-escalation.
“Bond market stress forced a policy pivot — from aggressive offense to tactical retreat. This shift transformed market psychology from panic-driven selling to momentum-driven buying,” noted Deribit in a recent market update.
As Bitcoin surged past $85,000, traders rushed to exit their previously dominant **$75K–$78K put options** (bearish bets) and instead piled into **$85K–$100K call options**, signaling strong conviction in further upside.
Market Fear Fades: Options Skew Turns Positive
One of the most reliable gauges of market sentiment is the options skew — a metric that compares implied volatility between put and call options. A negative skew indicates fear and demand for downside protection; a positive skew reflects bullish appetite.
Recent data from Amberdata shows a dramatic turnaround:
- The 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day Bitcoin options skew have all flipped from negative to positive territory.
- While the 7-day skew remains slightly negative at -3.2%, it’s a vast improvement from -14% just one week ago.
This shift confirms that panic has largely subsided. Traders are no longer hedging aggressively against a crash. Instead, they’re positioning for higher highs.
The psychological impact of reclaiming $80,000 cannot be overstated. Once seen as a resistance level, it has now become a springboard — reinforcing the narrative of structural strength in Bitcoin’s price action.
$100K Call Options Dominate: $1.2B in Open Interest
The most striking evidence of bullish momentum? The $100,000 Bitcoin call option** is now the most heavily traded contract on Deribit, with open interest nearing **$1.2 billion.
This isn't just retail speculation — such large open interest suggests institutional and professional traders are actively betting on a breakout above six figures within the next few weeks.
Other high-strike call options also show significant clustering:
- $95,000 to $120,000 call options have seen rising open interest.
- Multiple large contracts are set to expire in Q3 and Q4 2025, indicating long-term conviction.
At the same time, bearish positions haven’t disappeared entirely. The **$70,000 put option** remains the second-most popular contract, with $982 million in open interest — a sign that some traders are still preparing for downside volatility.
But the imbalance is clear: bullish momentum is accelerating, while bearish hedges are increasingly isolated.
👉 See how top traders analyze options flow to predict Bitcoin’s next big move.
Why the $100K Target Matters
The fixation on $100,000 isn’t arbitrary. It represents both a psychological milestone and a technical target supported by several models:
- Stock-to-Flow (S2F) models have long projected Bitcoin reaching six figures post-halving.
- On-chain metrics like MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) suggest we’re still in the early stages of the current bull cycle.
- Institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to grow, adding structural demand.
Moreover, macro conditions are becoming more favorable:
- Persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty keep the “digital gold” narrative alive.
- Central banks’ balance sheet expansions hint at future liquidity waves that could benefit hard assets like Bitcoin.
While short-term volatility is inevitable, the confluence of on-chain strength, derivatives positioning, and macro tailwinds paints a compelling case for higher prices.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does 'open interest' mean in options trading?
A: Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled. Rising open interest in call options suggests growing bullish sentiment.
Q: Why are $100K call options significant even if they’re out of the money?
A: High open interest at distant strike prices reflects market expectations. When traders buy far-out calls, they’re betting on explosive upside — often signaling strong conviction in a breakout.
Q: Is the shift from put to call dominance a reliable bullish signal?
A: Historically, yes. When traders abandon protective puts and embrace high-risk calls, it often marks a turning point from fear to greed — a classic late-stage bull market behavior.
Q: Could Bitcoin really reach $100,000 in 2025?
A: While no price prediction is guaranteed, multiple valuation models and growing institutional adoption suggest it’s within reach if macro conditions remain supportive and volatility stabilizes.
Q: What risks could derail the bullish outlook?
A: Regulatory crackdowns, unexpected macro shocks (e.g., recession or rate hikes), or prolonged low trading volume could delay or reverse gains. Monitoring on-chain data and derivatives trends helps assess evolving risk.
Final Outlook: Bulls in Control, But Caution Remains
The data is clear — Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted decisively toward bullishness. From collapsing put demand to surging call interest at $100K+, the derivatives market is pricing in significant upside.
Yet smart investors know that extreme optimism requires discipline. The fact that $70K put options still hold nearly $1 billion in open interest reminds us that risk management remains essential.
As we navigate this volatile but promising phase of the cycle, staying informed — not emotional — is key.
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Note: All content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conduct independent research before making any investment decisions.