Analyst: Long-Term Holders Selling Keeps Bitcoin Price Flat

·

Bitcoin’s price trajectory has remained stubbornly flat despite strong institutional inflows and growing corporate adoption. According to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, the reason lies in a quiet but powerful shift happening behind the scenes: long-term Bitcoin holders—often referred to as "OGs"—are steadily selling their holdings into the rising demand from institutions and corporate treasuries.

This dynamic has created a unique market equilibrium where massive buying interest is being counterbalanced by consistent supply from early adopters, effectively neutralizing upward price pressure.

Why Is Bitcoin Stuck at $100K?

Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, investor excitement has been high. Yet, Bitcoin has remained range-bound between $102,000 and $110,000 for months—an observation that has puzzled many retail investors.

Charles Edwards offers a clear explanation:

“People are wondering why Bitcoin has been stuck at $100K so long, despite the institutional FOMO.”

The answer? Long-term holders (LTHs) are taking advantage of the newfound institutional demand to gradually exit or reduce their positions. This isn’t panic selling—it’s strategic profit-taking by those who’ve held through multiple cycles.

👉 Discover what’s really driving Bitcoin’s price stability in 2025

The Rise of the Six-Month Holder Cohort

One of the most significant developments in recent months is the emergence of a new class of Bitcoin holders: entities that have accumulated BTC over the past six months. This group includes a growing number of public companies and private firms adopting Bitcoin into their corporate treasury strategies.

Edwards notes that this cohort—largely composed of so-called Bitcoin treasury companies—has absorbed nearly all the supply sold by long-term holders over the past 1.5 years.

“The amount of BTC acquired in the last two months by this cohort has completely consumed all of the BTC unloaded by LTHs over the last 1.5 years.”

This shift represents a generational transfer of ownership—from cypherpunks and early adopters to institutional balance sheets and forward-thinking corporations.

Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Gains Momentum

The trend of companies adding Bitcoin to their treasuries is accelerating. Firms like Cardone Capital, ProCap, Panther Metals, and Green Minerals have recently announced strategic BTC purchases, signaling confidence in its long-term value as a macro hedge and reserve asset.

These companies aren’t speculating—they’re building long-term reserves, much like nations holding gold. As more firms adopt this model, a self-reinforcing cycle begins to form.

The Treasury Flywheel Effect

Edwards describes this phenomenon as a “flywheel buying frenzy”—a feedback loop where early adopters inspire others to follow, increasing demand, which in turn attracts more participants.

This flywheel may soon rival—or even surpass—the narrative dominance of spot Bitcoin ETFs. While ETFs bring in passive investment flows, treasury adoption represents active, strategic accumulation with long-term implications.

ETF Inflows vs. On-Chain Realities

Despite over $3.2 billion in net inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since May 2024, prices have not broken out. On paper, this should fuel bullish momentum. However, on-chain data reveals a different story.

As ETFs buy, long-term holders sell—often directly into these institutional vehicles. The result? A closed-loop system where new money enters through ETFs but exits via seasoned holders cashing out.

This equilibrium prevents sharp rallies but also limits downside risk, creating a sideways trading pattern that could persist until one side gains decisive control.

👉 See how institutional flows are reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure

Market Sentiment and Short-Term Pressures

Beyond structural shifts, short-term factors are also influencing sentiment. Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, points to profit-taking ahead of key macro events—particularly the July 9 tariff deadline—as a source of temporary selling pressure.

Meanwhile, Han Xu from HashKey Capital highlights upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data releases and potential policy decisions as near-term risks. These include inflation reports, Fed rate decisions, and geopolitical developments that could impact risk appetite across financial markets.

Still, the broader trend remains constructive. Public companies continue to accumulate, retail interest persists, and volatility has decreased—a sign of maturing market dynamics.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase shouldn’t be mistaken for stagnation. Behind the flat price action lies a profound transformation: the decentralization of ownership from individual whales to diversified institutional holders.

This transition typically takes time—and often occurs without fanfare. But once complete, it sets the stage for the next leg of growth.

Historically, such periods of accumulation precede major breakouts. When selling pressure from long-term holders finally subsides and new demand continues to build, the path to higher prices becomes clearer.

👉 Stay ahead of the next Bitcoin breakout—track real-time market movements here

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Why isn’t Bitcoin rising despite strong ETF inflows?
A: While ETFs are bringing in billions in new capital, long-term holders are simultaneously selling their holdings into this demand. This balance between buying and selling pressure keeps prices range-bound.

Q: Who is buying Bitcoin if OGs are selling?
A: A new wave of corporate treasury buyers—including firms like Cardone Capital and Panther Metals—is absorbing much of the supply. These companies view Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset.

Q: What is the six-month holder cohort?
A: It refers to entities that have acquired Bitcoin within the last six months. Many are public or private companies building strategic BTC reserves rather than speculative traders.

Q: Could corporate adoption surpass ETFs in importance?
A: Yes. While ETFs drive liquidity and accessibility, corporate treasury adoption creates sustained demand and strengthens Bitcoin’s credibility as institutional-grade collateral.

Q: Is Bitcoin stuck forever?
A: No. Current price stability reflects a transitional phase. Once long-term selling tapers off and institutional buying accelerates, Bitcoin could enter a new growth cycle.

Q: How can I monitor these trends myself?
A: Track on-chain metrics like exchange outflows, large wallet movements, and treasury filings. Platforms offering blockchain analytics can help identify shifts in holder behavior.

Core Keywords: