The Bitcoin halving is expected within the next week, reigniting a critical question for investors: Is Bitcoin a “buy” right now?
After peaking near $74,000 in March 2025, Bitcoin dropped roughly 15%, briefly crashing to $60,000 over the weekend amid geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. As of Tuesday morning, BTC has recovered slightly to around $62,700 — still well below its recent high. This pullback, combined with the looming halving, has many traders wondering whether this dip presents a strategic entry point.
Let’s break down the technical signals, historical patterns, and macroeconomic forces shaping Bitcoin’s current trajectory.
Pre-Halving Pullbacks: A Familiar Script
Bitcoin’s price behavior ahead of a halving is not random — it follows a recognizable cycle. According to crypto analyst Luke Lango, past halvings show a consistent pattern: strong rallies in the months leading up to the event, followed by sharp corrections just weeks before the actual halving.
This year is no different. BTC surged from January through April, then began retreating as the fourth halving approaches.
“We think this pre-halving crypto crash creates a compelling buying opportunity… but not quite yet,” says Lango in his recent update.
Historically, these pullbacks are short-lived. After both the 2016 and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin bottomed almost immediately post-event, consolidated for several weeks, and then launched into major bull runs — gaining 284% and 559% respectively over the following year.
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The Key Signal to Watch: Bitcoin’s MACD
For Luke Lango, timing is everything — and his primary tool for identifying the right moment to buy is Bitcoin’s MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator.
The MACD compares short-term and long-term momentum. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it generates a bullish crossover — a widely watched buy signal among technical traders.
Right now, that signal hasn’t triggered.
As of this writing, Bitcoin’s MACD line (black) remains well below the signal line (red), trending downward into negative territory. This suggests ongoing bearish momentum and a higher probability of further short-term weakness.
Lango’s strategy? Wait for the bullish crossover.
“If we see Bitcoin push higher back toward $70,000 — then we will also get a bullish MACD crossover for the first time since early 2024. That crossover will be the ‘buy signal.’ Until then… we wait. But we stay at-the-ready.”
This disciplined approach avoids catching falling knives and aligns with proven technical patterns.
What History Says About Post-Halving Gains
Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook after each halving has been overwhelmingly positive.
Here’s how Bitcoin performed in the 365 days before and after each previous halving:
2011 Halving (Nov 28):
- Pre-halving: +385%
- Post-halving: +8,069%
2016 Halving (July 9):
- Pre-halving: +142%
- Post-halving: +284%
2020 Halving (May 11):
- Pre-halving: +17%
- Post-halving: +559%
While the magnitude varies, the trend is clear: every halving has been followed by substantial gains within a year.
However, there’s usually a sharp correction around the halving date:
- 2016: -38% drop
- 2020: -20% drop
This “halving dip” often reflects profit-taking by early investors. But once the dust settles, momentum typically resumes — especially two to three months later.
Altcoins tend to follow a similar rhythm: strong pre-halving rallies, flat performance around the event, then explosive growth months afterward.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the Bitcoin halving?
A: The Bitcoin halving is a programmed event that occurs roughly every four years, cutting in half the reward miners receive for validating transactions. This reduces new supply, creating scarcity — a key driver behind long-term price appreciation.
Q: Why does Bitcoin often drop before the halving?
A: Pre-halving selloffs are typically driven by profit-taking and short-term speculation. Many investors buy in anticipation of gains, then sell as the event nears — creating temporary downward pressure.
Q: When is the next Bitcoin halving expected?
A: The fourth Bitcoin halving is projected to occur within the next week, based on block production estimates.
Q: Should I buy Bitcoin now or wait?
A: Experts like Luke Lango suggest waiting for technical confirmation — such as a bullish MACD crossover — before entering. While fundamentals are strong, timing your entry can significantly impact returns.
Q: How do geopolitical events affect Bitcoin?
A: Short-term shocks like Middle East tensions can trigger risk-off sentiment, leading to broad market sell-offs including crypto. However, Bitcoin often rebounds quickly and may even benefit long-term as a hedge against uncertainty.
Macro Pressures: The Rising 10-Year Treasury Yield
Beyond crypto-specific factors, broader financial markets are sending warning signals.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.67%, its highest level since late 2024. This surge follows strong retail sales data and escalating Middle East tensions — both fueling inflation concerns and delaying expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Higher bond yields impact risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies in two key ways:
- Discount Rate Effect: Higher yields increase the discount rate used to value future cash flows, reducing asset valuations.
- Opportunity Cost: As “risk-free” Treasury returns rise, investors may shift capital away from volatile assets like Bitcoin.
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Will Rate Cuts Be Delayed?
Market watchers are divided on when the Fed might begin cutting rates.
Louis Navellier, veteran investor and founder of Growth Investor, believes a coordinated cut with the European Central Bank (ECB) in June would be ideal. Without it, he warns of a sharply stronger U.S. dollar — which lowers import costs but raises commodity prices globally.
Meanwhile, Charles Sizemore of The Freeport Society argues rate cuts won’t come until after the November 2025 presidential election, citing political and economic inertia. He warns this delay could increase market volatility and influence election outcomes.
Either scenario suggests prolonged tight monetary policy — which may keep upward pressure on bond yields and weigh on speculative assets in the near term.
Final Thoughts: Patience Pays Off
Bitcoin is behaving exactly as it has before past halvings — rallying ahead of time, then pulling back. While emotions may urge action, strategy calls for patience.
Key takeaways:
- The 15% decline from all-time highs may look attractive, but timing matters.
- Wait for technical confirmation — like a bullish MACD crossover above $70,000 — before initiating new positions.
- Historically, the biggest gains come after the halving, not before.
- Macro headwinds like rising Treasury yields add near-term risk but don’t negate long-term crypto fundamentals.
Whether you're a seasoned trader or new to digital assets, aligning your strategy with data-driven signals — rather than fear or FOMO — gives you a significant edge.
As the halving draws near, remember: the best opportunities often come to those who wait — and watch closely.
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