The Shiba Inu (SHIB) market is navigating turbulent waters as bearish signals intensify across on-chain metrics, derivatives data, and technical indicators. After a 3.22% drop on Wednesday, SHIB extended losses with a 2.40% decline on Thursday, struggling to regain momentum above key moving averages. With whales offloading significant holdings and supply in profit collapsing to just 23%, investor sentiment has turned cautious. This article explores the evolving dynamics behind Shiba Inu’s current price trajectory and assesses potential downside and upside scenarios.
Whale Activity Signals Loss of Confidence
On-chain analytics from Santiment reveal a notable shift in behavior among large SHIB holders—commonly referred to as "whales." These influential investors are systematically reducing their exposure, signaling weakening confidence in the meme coin’s near-term prospects.
Whales holding between 10 million and 100 million SHIB tokens have decreased their collective holdings from 9.43 trillion to 9.34 trillion—a net outflow of 9 billion tokens since January 1. More significantly, the cohort owning 100 million to 1 billion SHIB has trimmed their position by 720 billion tokens, dropping from 18.67 trillion to 17.95 trillion over the same period.
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This sustained sell-off by deep-pocketed investors suggests a strategic exit, possibly to lock in gains or reallocate capital amid sluggish performance. When whales reduce exposure, it often precedes extended consolidation or downward price pressure, especially when retail participation remains tepid.
Supply in Profit Drops to 23%: Majority of Holders Underwater
Another critical metric highlighting the deteriorating market structure is the supply in profit, which has plummeted from 75% at the beginning of the year to just 23%. This dramatic drop indicates that the vast majority of SHIB holders are now sitting on unrealized losses—a condition that can fuel further selling if market conditions fail to improve.
When a large portion of investors are underwater, the psychological threshold for capitulation lowers. Without a strong catalyst or broader market rally, these holders may choose to cut losses rather than wait indefinitely for recovery. This dynamic increases selling pressure and reduces buying support, creating a self-reinforcing downtrend.
Derivatives Market Reflects Bearish Sentiment
CoinGlass data paints a similarly gloomy picture in the derivatives market. Open Interest (OI) for Shiba Inu has declined by nearly 3% to $172 million, reflecting reduced participation and waning enthusiasm among leveraged traders.
More telling is the spike in long liquidations—reaching $331,000 in the past 24 hours—compared to only $15,000 in short liquidations. This imbalance reveals a wave of forced bullish exits, often triggered when prices fall below critical leverage thresholds. Such events typically accelerate downward momentum as automated sell orders cascade through exchanges.
The Long/Short ratio now stands at 0.8871, indicating more short positions than longs—an unusual tilt toward bearish positioning for a historically speculative asset like SHIB.
Despite this, the OI-weighted funding rate remains slightly positive at 0.0084%, suggesting that some bulls are still active and willing to pay premiums to maintain long positions. However, this resilience appears limited and may not be enough to counteract broader market headwinds.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Reversal Gains Momentum
From a technical perspective, Shiba Inu is exhibiting classic signs of a bearish reversal. The price recently rejected at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), failing to sustain any meaningful upside momentum. This level has become a resistance zone, reinforcing downward bias.
Currently trading below $0.00001250, SHIB could test the next support level at **$0.00001200, last seen on June 5. If selling pressure persists, bears may target $0.00001150**—a March-tested level—and potentially push toward the year-to-date low of **$0.00001029**.
Key Technical Indicators Confirm Downturn
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line and signal line are converging near zero, showing no clear bullish crossover. A flat or declining MACD suggests weakening momentum and potential continuation of the downtrend.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): Sitting at 43 and unable to break above the neutral 50 mark, the RSI confirms lackluster buying interest. With room before entering oversold territory (typically below 30), there remains significant downside potential before a natural rebound might occur.
Potential Bullish Reversal Scenario
While current signals lean bearish, a reversal remains possible if broader market conditions improve or if SHIB regains critical levels.
A sustained close above $0.00001421—the high reached on March 26—could signal renewed bullish momentum and attract short-term traders back into the market. In such a scenario, resistance levels lie at:
- $0.00001550 (February 22 peak)
- $0.00001700 (February 12 peak)
Breaking these levels would indicate strong demand and could reignite speculative interest in SHIB as part of a wider meme coin resurgence.
Core Keywords
- Shiba Inu price forecast
- SHIB whale activity
- Supply in profit crypto
- Shiba Inu technical analysis
- Crypto derivatives sentiment
- MACD RSI analysis
- Meme coin market trends
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is Shiba Inu’s supply in profit so low?
A: The drop to 23% reflects widespread unrealized losses due to prolonged price decline and whale sell-offs. Most investors bought at higher levels and haven’t recovered their cost basis.
Q: What does declining Open Interest mean for SHIB?
A: Falling Open Interest suggests traders are exiting leveraged positions, often due to liquidations or loss of confidence. It typically precedes lower volatility or extended downtrends.
Q: Can Shiba Inu recover from current levels?
A: Yes—recovery is possible if the price closes above $0.00001421 and broader market sentiment improves. However, this would require strong buying volume and renewed investor confidence.
Q: How do whale movements affect SHIB’s price?
A: Large holders influence market dynamics significantly. When whales sell, it increases supply without matching demand, often triggering panic or follow-on selling among retail investors.
Q: What technical indicators should I watch for SHIB?
A: Focus on the 50-day EMA, MACD crossover signals, RSI trend strength, and key support/resistance levels like $0.00001200 and $0.00001421.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Shiba Inu?
A: That depends on your risk tolerance and investment strategy. With strong bearish signals in play, caution is advised. Consider dollar-cost averaging or waiting for confirmed reversal patterns before entering.
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Conclusion
Shiba Inu is at a critical juncture. With whales exiting positions, supply in profit at multi-month lows, and technical indicators favoring sellers, the path of least resistance appears downward. However, crypto markets are inherently volatile—sentiment can shift rapidly with macro developments or viral narratives.
Traders should monitor key psychological and technical levels closely, use risk management strategies, and remain alert to changes in on-chain and derivatives activity. While short-term pressure mounts, long-term holders may view dips as accumulation opportunities—if backed by fundamental developments within the Shiba ecosystem.
For now, caution prevails—but opportunity often emerges from uncertainty.