Solana (SOL) has seen a notable decline in price today, dropping approximately 10% between October 1 and October 9. Currently struggling to hold the $140 support level, market participants are questioning whether the network’s on-chain metrics still support a rebound toward its中期 target of $190. While short-term sentiment appears bearish, broader trends across derivatives, competitor comparisons, trading volume, and token deposits offer a more nuanced outlook.
To fully understand SOL’s price trajectory, it's essential to analyze not just market sentiment but also fundamental on-chain activity and investor positioning. Despite the recent dip, certain indicators suggest underlying strength that could fuel a recovery in the near term.
On-Chain Metrics Show Mixed Signals for SOL
Although increased network usage doesn’t guarantee higher token prices, Solana’s value is closely tied to market expectations around adoption. For instance, when new decentralized applications (DApps) launch on the network, traders often accumulate SOL in anticipation of airdrops, incentive programs, or staking rewards—driving demand.
Recent on-chain data reveals that daily trading volume on Solana has declined by 33%, falling from $1.8 billion to $1.2 billion since late July when SOL peaked near $190. In contrast, Ethereum’s daily volume dipped only 7%, from $1.5 billion to $1.4 billion over the same period. Meanwhile, BNB Chain saw a 48% increase in daily trading volume, rising from $485 million to $720 million since July.
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This comparison highlights a relative slowdown in Solana’s transactional activity compared to key competitors. However, trading volume alone doesn’t paint the full picture—especially for a blockchain ecosystem where user engagement extends beyond simple trades.
Token holding behavior and total value locked (TVL) are equally critical metrics. Many DApp functionalities—such as staking, social interactions, NFT collecting, and yield farming—rely more on holding assets than frequent trading. Therefore, TVL serves as a strong proxy for ecosystem health.
On October 8, Solana’s TVL stood at 37.7 million SOL, up from 35.8 million SOL one month prior—an increase of 5%. During the same period, Ethereum’s TVL dropped by 2%, and BNB Chain’s fell by 6%. This divergence suggests that despite lower transaction volume, Solana continues to attract and retain capital within its ecosystem.
Notably, several major DApps on Solana have reported significant growth:
- Raydium: Trading volume surged 35% over the past 30 days, reaching $1.21 billion.
- Jupiter: Volume increased by 17%, totaling $1.23 billion.
- Sanctum: TVL grew 29%, now exceeding $962 million.
These figures indicate that while overall network throughput may have cooled, high-quality projects are still drawing users and liquidity. The inflow into these platforms is helping offset broader declines in general network activity.
Derivatives Market Shows Growing Bullish Sentiment
Futures and perpetual swap contracts provide valuable insights into trader psychology and risk appetite. In bullish markets, funding rates for perpetual contracts typically remain positive, reflecting strong long-side demand.
SOL’s funding rate briefly turned negative on October 8—a sign of short-term bearishness—but quickly recovered to neutral by October 9. As of now, the average funding rate stands at 0.01% per 8-hour session, translating to an annualized rate of about 0.9%. While not aggressively bullish, this level indicates stable demand for long positions without excessive leverage.
Open interest in SOL futures has also remained relatively flat, suggesting that the recent price drop wasn’t driven by mass liquidations or panic selling. Instead, it reflects profit-taking after the summer rally rather than a structural loss of confidence.
This stability in derivatives markets implies that institutional and professional traders continue to view Solana as a viable long-term bet, even amid short-term volatility.
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Key Core Keywords:
- Solana price analysis
- SOL token price
- Solana on-chain metrics
- Solana TVL growth
- SOL funding rate
- Solana DApp activity
- Cryptocurrency market trends
- Blockchain network performance
Competitive Landscape: Where Does Solana Stand?
When evaluating Solana’s potential for recovery, it's important to consider its position relative to other Layer 1 blockchains.
While Ethereum maintains dominance in terms of developer activity and institutional adoption, its high fees and slower speeds make it less competitive for retail-focused DApps. BNB Chain benefits from centralized exchange backing and low costs but faces criticism over decentralization.
Solana differentiates itself with ultra-fast transaction speeds (over 65,000 TPS) and minimal fees—making it ideal for high-frequency applications like decentralized exchanges (DEXs), NFT marketplaces, and gaming platforms. Its recent ecosystem growth, particularly in DeFi and meme coin activity, underscores its appeal among retail investors and developers alike.
However, scalability comes with trade-offs. Network outages in previous years have raised concerns about reliability, which may contribute to cautious investor sentiment during downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is Solana’s price dropping if on-chain activity is increasing?
A: Price movements are influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and speculative trading. Even with strong fundamentals like rising TVL and DApp growth, short-term price action can be driven by profit-taking or broader crypto market trends.
Q: Can Solana reach $190 again in the near term?
A: A return to $190 is possible if bullish momentum resumes and trading volume picks up. Key catalysts could include major DApp launches, increased staking activity, or positive regulatory developments in the broader crypto space.
Q: How does Solana compare to Ethereum and BNB Chain?
A: Solana offers faster transactions and lower fees than both Ethereum and BNB Chain, making it attractive for scalable applications. However, Ethereum leads in security and decentralization, while BNB Chain benefits from strong exchange integration.
Q: What does a neutral funding rate mean for SOL traders?
A: A neutral funding rate suggests balanced market sentiment—neither overly greedy nor fearful. It reduces the risk of sharp liquidations and sets the stage for a sustainable price move if new catalysts emerge.
Q: Is declining trading volume a red flag for Solana?
A: Not necessarily. While lower volume can indicate reduced speculation, it doesn’t always reflect declining interest. In Solana’s case, TVL growth and DApp engagement suggest users are still actively participating—just not necessarily trading frequently.
Final Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic
Despite the recent 10% correction, Solana’s ecosystem shows signs of resilience. Growing TVL, strong performance from top DApps like Raydium and Jupiter, and stable derivatives positioning all point to sustained interest beneath the surface.
For SOL to reclaim $190, it will need renewed buying pressure—potentially triggered by improved market sentiment, new product launches, or increased institutional inflows. Until then, consolidation around $140 appears likely.
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As always, investors should monitor both on-chain data and macro trends while managing risk appropriately. With its unique blend of speed, affordability, and growing ecosystem adoption, Solana remains one of the most compelling Layer 1 blockchains in 2025’s evolving digital economy.