SUI has surged over 70% in recent weeks, breaking through a critical 108-day resistance trend line and reigniting bullish sentiment across the crypto market. After bottoming out near $1.71 in early April, the Layer-1 blockchain token has reclaimed key technical levels and is now testing major resistance zones. With growing momentum and strategic developments in the Bitcoin-powered DeFi (BTCfi) space, investors are asking: *Can SUI sustain this rally and push toward $4?*
This article dives deep into SUI’s price action, technical indicators, wave structure, and on-chain catalysts to assess the likelihood of continued upside.
SUI Breaks Key Resistance on Strong Momentum
The daily chart for SUI/USDT reveals a powerful breakout that could signal the start of a significant corrective rally.
On April 7, SUI briefly dipped below the $2.05 horizontal support level—marked by a black circle on the chart—touching a low of $1.71. This drop initially suggested further bearish pressure. However, buyers quickly stepped in, turning the former support into a new floor and forming a higher low.
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Since then, price action has been decisively bullish. Today, SUI broke above a descending resistance trend line that had held for 108 days—a major technical hurdle. The breakout propelled the price to a high of $2.97, with strong volume backing the move.
Now, the focus shifts to the next resistance zone at $3.25, a level not seen since February. Breaking above this mark would confirm a shift in market structure from bearish to bullish.
Technical Indicators Confirm Bullish Outlook
Supporting the breakout are key technical indicators showing strong bullish momentum:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now above 50 and climbing, indicating increasing buying pressure.
- The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has crossed into positive territory and is expanding, signaling accelerating upward momentum.
- Notably, both indicators displayed bullish divergence (highlighted in orange) prior to the breakout—meaning price made lower lows while momentum made higher lows. This often precedes strong reversals and adds legitimacy to the current move.
These signals suggest that selling pressure has weakened and institutional or algorithmic buyers may be accumulating.
Corrective Rally Underway: Elliott Wave Analysis
From an Elliott Wave perspective, SUI appears to have completed a full five-wave bearish decline (marked in red) from its all-time high. While the larger trend remains bearish, this completion opens the door for a substantial corrective phase—commonly structured as an A-B-C pattern.
Currently, SUI is likely in Wave A of this countertrend rally (shown in green). Within Wave A, the internal structure suggests we're in sub-wave three, which is typically the strongest and most extended leg in impulse moves.
According to Fibonacci retracement levels:
- The 0.5 retracement level sits at $3.54, a likely target for Wave A completion.
- The 0.618 retracement level is at $3.98, which could act as a ceiling for the full A-B-C correction.
This implies that even if the long-term bear market isn’t over, SUI has room to run in the short to mid-term. A move toward $3.54 appears highly probable, with potential extension toward $4 if momentum holds.
Catalysts Fueling the SUI Surge
Beyond technicals, fundamental developments are boosting confidence in the SUI ecosystem.
Recently, the SUI Network announced strategic partnerships with several key players in the BTCfi (Bitcoin DeFi) sector:
- Lombard Finance: A lending protocol enabling Bitcoin-backed loans.
- RedStone: A decentralized oracle providing real-time data feeds.
- Cubist: A yield infrastructure platform enhancing cross-chain liquidity.
- Babylon: A protocol allowing Bitcoin staking to secure PoS chains.
These collaborations position SUI as a central hub for integrating Bitcoin’s security and liquidity into scalable DeFi applications—a growing narrative in 2025.
Such ecosystem expansion not only increases utility but also attracts developer activity and user adoption, both of which can drive sustainable demand for the token.
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Can SUI Reach $4?
With technical confirmation and strong catalysts aligning, a move toward $4 is within reach.
Here’s what needs to happen:
- Hold above $2.75: This zone must act as support during any pullbacks.
- Break and close above $3.25: A weekly close above this level confirms bullish control.
- Maintain RSI momentum: Staying above 50 without entering overbought extremes (above 70) ensures healthy progression.
- Continue ecosystem growth: Ongoing partnerships and product launches will sustain investor interest.
If these conditions hold, SUI could reach $3.54 by late Q2 and test $4 by early Q3—especially if broader market conditions remain favorable.
However, traders should remain cautious of profit-taking near resistance zones and monitor volume closely during breakout attempts.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What caused SUI’s recent price surge?
A: The surge was driven by a technical breakout from a 108-day resistance trend line, combined with positive news about SUI’s role in Bitcoin-powered DeFi through new partnerships.
Q: Is SUI in a bull or bear market?
A: While the long-term trend remains bearish from its all-time high, SUI is currently in a strong corrective bull phase that could push prices toward $3.54–$4.
Q: What are the key support and resistance levels for SUI?
A: Key support is now at $2.75–$2.80. Major resistance lies at $3.25 (immediate), followed by $3.54 and $3.98 as longer-term targets.
Q: How reliable is the Elliott Wave analysis for SUI?
A: Elliott Wave provides a probabilistic framework rather than certainty. However, the completion of a five-wave down move and current rally align well with classic corrective patterns.
Q: Are there risks to the bullish outlook?
A: Yes. Risks include broader crypto market downturns, low follow-through volume on breakouts, or delays in ecosystem development. Traders should use stop-loss orders and position sizing accordingly.
Q: What is BTCfi, and why does it matter for SUI?
A: BTCfi refers to DeFi applications built using Bitcoin’s security or liquidity. By partnering with BTCfi projects, SUI enhances its relevance in cross-chain finance and taps into Bitcoin’s vast dormant capital.
Final Thoughts: Bullish Momentum Building
SUI’s 70% rally off April lows is more than just a bounce—it’s a technically validated breakout supported by strong fundamentals and growing ecosystem momentum.
With key indicators flashing green, wave structure suggesting further upside, and strategic moves in BTCfi enhancing long-term utility, SUI stands out as one of the most compelling plays in the current market cycle.
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While caution is warranted near resistance zones, the path toward $3.54—and potentially $4—appears increasingly viable. For traders and investors alike, SUI offers a rare combination of technical strength and fundamental promise in today’s volatile landscape.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.