Is 5x ROI Possible in a Crypto Bear Market? Exchange Director Shares 3 Key Insights

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Cryptocurrency investing often revolves around a popular mantra: “buy new, not old.” This concept suggests that investors should focus on emerging digital assets rather than established ones, with the belief that newer projects offer significantly higher returns. While this idea has gained traction—especially after witnessing explosive gains from certain altcoins during past bull runs—it’s worth examining whether this strategy holds up under scrutiny.

Josh, Director at the social trading platform BingX, outlines three critical perspectives to help investors better understand the “new vs. old” debate and make informed decisions—even in a bear market.

1. New Coins Often Deliver Impressive Returns

Looking back at the 2020–2021 bull cycle, many newly launched tokens achieved extraordinary performance. For example:

These numbers are hard to ignore. Investing in new cryptocurrencies can feel similar to backing early-stage startups—high risk, but potentially high reward. Just like in venture capital, while most new projects may fail, the few that succeed can generate life-changing returns.

During that cycle, one of the hottest themes was Layer 1 blockchains, where early investors in emerging protocols reaped massive gains. This success reinforced the idea that timing and project selection in the new coin space can lead to outsized profits.

👉 Discover how early-stage crypto investments can multiply your portfolio during market shifts.

However, it’s crucial to remember: we mostly hear about the winners. For every Solana, there are dozens of forgotten tokens that launched with hype but eventually faded into obscurity. The key isn’t just chasing new coins—it’s identifying those with strong fundamentals, active development, and growing ecosystems.

2. Evaluating Old Coins: Are They Underperforming?

Many argue that older, established cryptocurrencies underperform in new bull markets because they’ve already had their moment in the spotlight. To test this, let’s look at the top 10 cryptos from 2018 and assess their ability to surpass previous all-time highs by 2025.

Data shows only three or four have managed to break past their prior peaks. Take Litecoin (LTC), for instance. From 2018 to today, its return is barely 8% over four years—an average annual gain of just 2%. Compared to the double- or triple-digit returns seen in newer assets, this seems lackluster.

This underperformance fuels the narrative: Why hold aging projects when you could be riding the next wave of innovation?

But here's a critical point: most new coins launch during bear markets, when prices across the board are low. Their explosive gains are measured from these depressed entry points. Meanwhile, older coins are often judged from much higher baselines—sometimes near bull market tops.

So when comparing performance, we must ask: Are we measuring fairly?

3. Rethinking Old Coin Performance: A Fairer Benchmark

To make a more accurate comparison, we should evaluate both new and old coins based on their bear market prices—the levels at which real investors actually buy during downturns.

When analyzed this way, many legacy cryptocurrencies show surprisingly strong returns. Bitcoin and Ethereum may not hit 100x like some altcoins, but their consistency, network strength, and widespread adoption provide stability and reliable growth over time.

Moreover, older projects benefit from something intangible yet powerful: market consensus.

Community support, brand recognition, exchange listings, and institutional interest all contribute to long-term value. Projects like Cardano (ADA) or Litecoin (LTC) might not dazzle with cutting-edge tech updates, but they’ve built loyal followings and proven resilience through multiple market cycles.

Recall Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB)—assets often mocked for lacking technical depth. Yet both surged dramatically due to community-driven momentum. As Josh reflects: “I once dismissed Dogecoin as meaningless. I was wrong. Market sentiment is real—and it moves prices.”

This highlights a key truth: consensus itself is a form of value.

The Downside of Chasing “New”: DeFi 2.0’s Collapse

The hype around new projects isn’t always justified. Consider DeFi 2.0, which gained popularity in the mid-to-late stages of the last bull run. Promising innovations like protocol-owned liquidity and bonding mechanisms, it attracted significant capital.

Yet today, most DeFi 2.0 tokens have crashed—some down over 95% from their peaks. Meanwhile, foundational DeFi 1.0 protocols like Uniswap, Aave, and MakerDAO continue to operate robustly and maintain strong user bases.

This contrast teaches a vital lesson: not every new trend is sustainable. Innovation alone doesn’t guarantee success—execution, adoption, and longevity matter just as much.

👉 Learn how to spot genuine innovation vs. fleeting crypto trends before investing.

So, Should You Invest in Old or New Coins?

The answer isn’t binary.

In fact, data suggests that buying both types during a bear market—when valuations are low—can yield strong overall returns. The key is timing and diversification.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Can you really achieve 5x returns in a bear market?

Yes—especially if you invest during deep market lows. Many top performers from the last cycle were bought when sentiment was negative and prices were low.

Q: Are older cryptocurrencies safe investments?

Generally, yes. Legacy coins like BTC and ETH have survived multiple crashes and upgrades. They carry less technological risk than unproven new projects.

Q: How do I evaluate a new crypto project?

Look for: active development, transparent team, real-world use cases, community engagement, and audited smart contracts.

Q: Why did DeFi 2.0 fail while DeFi 1.0 succeeded?

DeFi 2.0 relied heavily on incentive structures that weren’t sustainable long-term. DeFi 1.0 focused on solving real problems like decentralized trading and lending.

Q: Does community consensus really affect price?

Absolutely. Cryptocurrencies are driven by supply, demand, and perception. Strong communities can drive adoption, media attention, and price appreciation—even without technical superiority.

Q: Should I only invest in new coins for higher returns?

No. A balanced approach works best. Use established cryptos as anchors and allocate a smaller percentage to high-potential new projects.

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While “buy new, not old” sounds compelling, the smarter strategy is thoughtful allocation—leveraging the innovation of new projects while respecting the resilience of proven ones. In the volatile world of crypto, patience, research, and emotional discipline often outperform hype-chasing every time.