As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify, traditional safe-haven assets like gold are surging—approaching all-time highs. Yet, Bitcoin (BTC), often labeled "digital gold," is not following the same trajectory. Instead, analysts observe that BTC continues to behave more like risk-on assets such as equities, raising questions about its role in times of global uncertainty.
According to TradingView data, gold prices climbed to $3,450 per ounce on Monday—just $50 short of the near-record high of $3,500 reached in April. This steady rise marks a remarkable 30% increase since the beginning of the year, driven by a mix of factors including former President Trump’s trade tariff policies and escalating military actions in the Middle East.
Notably, on June 13, when Israel launched missile strikes against Iran, Bitcoin’s price dipped—mirroring movements in stock markets rather than gaining as a traditional避险 asset might have.
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Why Gold Is Rising: Inflation and Geopolitical Risk
Gold has long been regarded as a hedge against inflation and economic instability. With persistent inflationary pressures and rising concerns over central bank policies, investors are once again turning to bullion as a store of value.
“If we see more data or commentary from economic officials indicating widespread concern over inflation or interest rate policy, gold prices could very well break into new record territory,” reported CBS News over the weekend.
This flight to safety underscores gold’s enduring appeal during turbulent times. Its slow but steady appreciation reflects confidence in its long-term stability—a stark contrast to the sharp swings seen in digital assets.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: Divergent Paths in 2025
In comparison, Bitcoin has gained only 13% year-to-date. While it's trading close to its peak—down just 5.3% from the all-time high of $111,800 reached on May 22—it remains tethered to broader market sentiment rather than geopolitical developments.
Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin continues to trade more like U.S. equities than like gold. “From this perspective, with U.S. stock index futures rebounding strongly today from Friday’s sell-off, Bitcoin has room to rise and catch up with their performance.”
He added that as long as Bitcoin holds above the critical support zone of $95,000 to $100,000, “I expect it to retest the $112,000 historical high, then move toward $116,000 and eventually $120,000.”
This outlook suggests that despite its "digital gold" label, Bitcoin’s price action is still heavily influenced by liquidity flows, investor risk appetite, and macroeconomic signals tied to financial markets—not geopolitical risk hedging.
Short-Term Trends: Oil and Gold Gain, Stocks and BTC React Differently
Henrik Andersson, analyst at Apollo Crypto, echoed this view. “After the initial sell-off linked to Middle East developments on Friday, we’ve seen both stock index futures and Bitcoin recover.”
However, he noted a key divergence: in the short term, “oil and gold may continue to move inversely to stocks and Bitcoin.” This inverse relationship highlights how traditional commodities respond differently to conflict—oil rising on supply fears, gold on safe-haven demand—while equities and crypto often react negatively to uncertainty.
Nick Ruck, Head of LVRG Research, believes the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” is “fading.” He explained that because BTC fails to follow gold’s upward momentum during crises, traders are increasingly viewing it through the lens of short-term volatility and liquidity conditions.
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As a result, Bitcoin shows stronger correlation with risk assets than with stores of value—undermining one of its core investment theses during periods of geopolitical stress.
Fed Watch: A Catalyst for Bitcoin’s Next Move?
Market attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. While futures suggest a 96.7% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, any shift in tone from Fed officials could influence investor sentiment across asset classes.
Eugene Cheung, Chief Business Officer at digital asset platform OSL, noted: “If risk sentiment shifts and investors begin seeking alternative stores of value—and if this week’s Fed meeting aligns with expectations—Bitcoin could regain momentum in the coming weeks.”
The interplay between monetary policy expectations and risk appetite will likely determine whether Bitcoin can break free from its equity-like behavior and begin acting more like a true hedge.
Core Keywords:
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Gold price
- Middle East conflict
- Digital gold
- Risk assets
- Safe-haven assets
- Federal Reserve meeting
- Market volatility
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why isn’t Bitcoin rising with gold during the Middle East conflict?
A: Unlike gold, Bitcoin is still primarily treated as a risk asset by most investors. It tends to follow stock market trends and liquidity conditions rather than acting as a reliable safe haven during geopolitical crises.
Q: Is Bitcoin still considered "digital gold"?
A: The label persists, but recent price behavior suggests weakening support for this narrative. Bitcoin has failed to decouple from equities during times of stress, making its role as a long-term store of value debatable.
Q: What factors are driving gold’s price increase in 2025?
A: Gold is being pushed higher by inflation concerns, global geopolitical tensions—especially in the Middle East—and shifts in trade policy. These factors reinforce its status as a traditional hedge against uncertainty.
Q: Could Bitcoin become a safe-haven asset in the future?
A: It’s possible if adoption grows among institutional investors seeking portfolio diversification. However, for now, its high volatility and correlation with tech stocks limit its effectiveness as a避险 tool.
Q: How does the Federal Reserve impact Bitcoin’s price?
A: Fed decisions influence interest rates and liquidity. Lower rates or dovish guidance can boost risk assets—including crypto—while tighter monetary policy often leads to sell-offs across equities and digital assets.
Q: What price levels should Bitcoin watchers monitor?
A: Key support sits between $95,000 and $100,000. If maintained, analysts expect BTC to retest its all-time high near $112,000 and potentially advance toward $116,000–$120,000.
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While gold solidifies its role as a crisis-resistant asset amid rising global tensions, Bitcoin remains tethered to speculative trading dynamics and macro-financial trends. Whether it can evolve into a true alternative to traditional hedges depends on structural adoption, regulatory clarity, and shifts in investor psychology—not just price performance. For now, when turmoil strikes, investors still reach for gold—not crypto.