Ethereum (ETH) is approaching one of the most significant milestones in its derivatives market history. On June 25, a record-breaking options expiry is set to unfold, with nearly $1.5 billion of the $3.3 billion in open interest (OI) for ETH options scheduled to expire. Over 638,000 ETH options contracts fall within this June expiry window, representing about 45% of total open interest. This marks the largest options expiry event in Ethereum’s history—and possibly in the broader crypto derivatives space.
Despite this milestone, the current market environment tells a cautious story. ETH has been trading around the $2,270 range, a sharp 47.61% decline from its all-time high of $4,362 reached on May 12. While Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of recovery, Ethereum has lagged, struggling to regain bullish momentum. This delay has sparked discussions about shifting investor sentiment and the growing dominance of bearish positioning in the options market.
Record Open Interest Amid Price Decline
Even as ETH’s price has pulled back, interest in its derivatives market remains strong. According to Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange, the put-to-call ratio for June expiry stands at 0.79. This means there are more call options (bullish bets) than puts (bearish bets) still open—specifically, around 64,000 more call contracts.
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At first glance, this suggests underlying optimism. However, a deeper analysis reveals a different reality. Much of this open call interest is concentrated far above the current market price—particularly around the $3,200 strike price. As Robbie Liu, market insights analyst at OKEx, explains:
“Because a large volume of call options are so far out of the money, the actual impact at expiry remains limited. The market is still effectively bearish in practice.”
Options that are significantly out of the money are unlikely to be exercised, meaning their expiration will have minimal direct impact on price action. Instead, the real pressure point lies in where the most "pain" is concentrated.
The Max Pain Price: $1,920
The max pain theory suggests that the price at which the greatest number of options expire worthless benefits market makers and large traders. For the June 25 expiry, that level sits at $1,920—over 10% below current trading levels.
This indicates that most open put and call positions would lose value if ETH holds above $2,100. While a drop to $1,920 isn't highly probable in the short term, especially given recent stabilization efforts, volatility remains a constant in crypto markets. As seen during the infamous "Black Wednesday" crash on May 19, sudden drawdowns can reshape market dynamics overnight.
Luuk Strijers, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, emphasized the growing significance of these expiry events:
“As our open interest pool expands, each expiry becomes a more critical liquidity and risk transfer event—creating a positive feedback loop for market depth.”
Interestingly, while the dollar value of open interest has declined due to falling ETH prices, the number of contracts outstanding has remained resilient. This suggests sustained structural interest in Ethereum derivatives—even amid bearish price action.
Institutional Interest Grows via CME Ethereum Futures
The launch of CME Ethereum futures on February 8, 2025, marked a pivotal moment for institutional adoption. On its first trading day, volume exceeded $30 million—signaling strong early demand.
According to data shared with Cointelegraph, CME’s ETH futures averaged 5,895 contracts per day in May (ADV), with average open interest reaching 3,082 contracts, equivalent to $6.86 million in notional value. The single-day volume record was set on May 19 with **11,980 contracts traded** ($26.5 million), while open interest peaked on June 1 at 3,977 contracts (~$8.82 million).
Large Open Interest Holders (LOIH)—traders holding at least 25 contracts—reached a high of 45 participants on May 25, up from a monthly average of 37. Each LOIH represents exposure of approximately 1,250 ETH or $2.7 million at current prices.
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Still, growth in CME’s ETH futures market faces headwinds. Strijers notes:
“CME has achieved roughly $400 million in ETH open interest. But without yield incentives or broader product diversity, growth remains constrained.”
Currently, CME offers only Bitcoin and Ethereum futures and options—including micro-BTC futures—but has no plans to expand its crypto product suite further in the near term.
Shifting Correlation Between BTC and ETH
Historically, Ethereum has closely followed Bitcoin’s price movements. But in early May, their correlation dropped below 0.6, indicating more independent price action. By June, however, it rebounded sharply to 0.9, reflecting renewed co-movement.
Despite this tight correlation, ETH underperformed during BTC’s recent rally to $41,000—driven by El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender. While BTC surged, ETH remained range-bound between $2,400 and $2,500.
Robbie Liu observes:
“ETH’s recovery momentum has been weaker than BTC’s. The ETH/BTC pair has declined by over 20% since its June 7 peak.”
This divergence echoes patterns seen in early 2018, when ETH peaked about a month after BTC before entering a prolonged correction phase. Liu suggests it may take time for Ethereum to regain bullish traction:
“Markets often need longer to reverse ETH’s momentum compared to BTC.”
Lower Gas Fees Signal Network Relief
One bright spot for Ethereum has emerged in June: dramatically lower gas fees. On June 1, network transaction costs hit a six-month low.
This improvement follows the Berlin hard fork on April 13—a key upgrade aimed at optimizing gas usage and improving scalability. High fees throughout March and April had driven users and capital toward EVM-compatible sidechains like Binance Smart Chain (BSC) and Polygon.
Liu explains:
“Persistent high gas fees were a major factor behind capital rotation into alternative Layer-1 and Layer-2 solutions. When fees spiked above 1,000 gwei during mid-May sell-offs, DeFi users accelerated their migration.”
While lower fees today may reflect reduced network congestion rather than fundamental scalability fixes, they still provide much-needed relief for retail users and DeFi participants.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is options expiry and why does it matter for Ethereum?
A: Options expiry is when derivative contracts settle or expire. Large expiries can influence short-term price action due to hedging unwinds and dealer adjustments—especially near max pain levels.
Q: What does a put-to-call ratio below 1 mean?
A: A ratio below 1 indicates more call options than puts are open. However, if those calls are far out of the money (like at $3,200), they may not reflect real bullish conviction.
Q: Why is the max pain price important?
A: The max pain price ($1,920 for this expiry) is where the most options lose value—potentially incentivizing price movement toward that level before expiry.
Q: How do CME futures impact ETH price?
A: CME futures attract institutional capital and offer regulated exposure. Growing open interest signals increasing legitimacy and long-term investor confidence.
Q: Is low gas fee good for Ethereum?
A: Yes—lower fees improve user experience and competitiveness against Layer-2 networks and rival blockchains, encouraging app usage and capital return.
Q: Will ETH recover its bullish momentum?
A: While short-term sentiment remains cautious, structural demand via derivatives and institutions suggests resilience. A sustained BTC rally could eventually lift ETH as well.
As Ethereum navigates this record-breaking options expiry, market watchers are closely monitoring whether bearish overhangs will clear or prolong downward pressure. With institutional interest rising and network conditions improving, the foundation for recovery may be forming—even if the path remains volatile.
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