Bitcoin is once again capturing the spotlight as options traders intensify their bullish bets, eyeing a potential surge past the $80,000 mark by the end of November. Despite the looming U.S. presidential election, market sentiment remains resilient — and increasingly optimistic — about Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
This growing confidence isn't just speculative noise. It's reflected in real trading activity, with a clear shift in derivatives positioning pointing toward strong upward momentum. Regardless of who wins the White House, traders appear to believe that macroeconomic tailwinds and structural demand drivers will continue to support higher prices.
Market Sentiment Favors Upside Breakout
Recent data from Deribit, the largest cryptocurrency options exchange, shows a declining put-to-call ratio heading into year-end — a strong indicator of bullish bias. More traders are buying call options (which profit from price increases) than put options (which hedge against declines), suggesting rising conviction in further upside.
Notably, open interest for call options expiring on November 29 is heavily concentrated around the $80,000 strike price**, with $70,000 as the second most popular level. For contracts expiring on December 27, the largest positions cluster at $100,000 and $80,000**, reinforcing long-term bullish expectations. Even earlier-dated calls, such as those expiring November 8, show peak interest at $75,000.
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This pattern indicates that institutional and sophisticated retail traders aren't just betting on modest gains — they're preparing for a significant rally, one that could push Bitcoin into uncharted territory before the year closes.
Why the Election Isn’t Derailing Crypto Optimism
One of the most striking aspects of current market behavior is its apparent indifference to the U.S. election outcome — an event that typically fuels volatility across financial markets.
David Lawant, Research Head at crypto market maker FalconX, noted:
“The market consensus seems to be that Bitcoin could perform well regardless of the election result. Our analysis reveals a clear bullish bias in options activity surrounding the upcoming election.”
There are several reasons behind this resilience:
- Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance: Former President Donald Trump has openly embraced digital assets, even accepting Bitcoin donations and advocating for crypto-friendly policies. This has led some analysts to label Bitcoin a “Trump trade,” betting on deregulation and innovation under a potential second Trump administration.
- Harris Offers Regulatory Clarity: On the Democratic side, Vice President Kamala Harris has signaled support for a balanced regulatory framework — a notable shift from the Biden administration’s more adversarial approach toward the crypto industry. A structured but supportive policy environment could encourage institutional adoption.
- Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Beyond politics, expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts are fueling risk-on sentiment. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, making it more attractive to investors.
These combined factors have created a rare alignment: political uncertainty usually dampens markets, but in this case, both possible outcomes appear favorable for crypto.
Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action and Momentum
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,798 in March 2025, driven largely by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. These investment vehicles brought unprecedented institutional demand and liquidity to the market.
While the initial euphoria cooled slightly afterward, BTC has maintained strong momentum — up approximately 61% year-to-date. At the start of this week, it briefly approached the $70,000 level before pulling back slightly.
Yev Feldman, Co-Founder of SwapGlobal — a platform offering swaps and options to digital asset investors — observed:
“We’re seeing traders buying calls near $68,000 and puts near $66,000. Many are positioning for breakout moves on both sides. But realistically, there are few compelling reasons for a major post-election drop in Bitcoin — so betting on upside makes more sense.”
This strategy reflects a nuanced view: while short-term volatility is expected around election day (November 5), the underlying trend remains firmly upward.
Options Market Signals Strong Confidence
Beyond simple directional bets, the structure of options pricing itself reveals deep market confidence.
Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, reported on Monday that:
“At higher levels, options dealers are pricing in call premium across nearly all contracts with maturities beyond one day.”
In simpler terms: call options are trading at a premium compared to puts, especially for medium- to long-dated expiries. This means traders are willing to pay more to gain exposure to upside potential — not to hedge downside risk.
Lawant emphasized this distinction:
“Investors are increasingly using the options market to capture upside rather than protect against losses. For altcoins, however, opinions are more divided. There’s less consensus on how alternative cryptos might perform under different election scenarios.”
This divergence highlights Bitcoin’s unique status as a macro asset — less tied to speculative narratives and more viewed as a hedge against monetary expansion and inflation.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Q: Why are traders focusing on $80,000?
A: The concentration of open interest at $80,000 strike prices suggests that many professional traders expect Bitcoin to reach or exceed this level by late November. It represents a logical next resistance after breaking past $70,000.
Q: Could the U.S. election cause Bitcoin to crash?
A: Historical data shows Bitcoin tends to remain stable during elections. With both major candidates expressing relatively favorable views toward crypto this time, a sharp decline appears unlikely unless accompanied by broader financial turmoil.
Q: What role do ETFs play in current price action?
A: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have dramatically increased institutional participation. They provide regulated exposure, improving liquidity and reducing volatility over time — key factors supporting sustained price growth.
Q: Is the market overbought or due for a correction?
A: While short-term pullbacks are always possible, the dominance of call buying and low hedging demand suggest traders expect any dip to be shallow and temporary.
Q: How reliable are options markets as predictors?
A: Options data reflects real money being placed on outcomes. While not foolproof, persistent patterns — like rising call premiums and concentrated strikes — often precede major price moves.
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Looking Ahead: From $70K to $80K and Beyond
While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, the current confluence of technical positioning, macro conditions, and investor sentiment paints a compelling picture.
Bitcoin’s path to $80,000 is no longer seen as speculative fantasy — it’s becoming a base-case scenario priced into derivatives markets. The combination of ETF-driven demand, halving-induced supply constraints, dovish monetary policy expectations, and growing political acceptance creates a powerful catalyst mix.
Even if volatility spikes around Election Day on November 5 — particularly given high implied volatility in near-term options — the broader trend remains upward.
As David Lawant pointed out, previous major events like ETF approvals and block halvings triggered sharper swings than elections historically have. So while uncertainty exists, it may ultimately serve as a springboard rather than a setback.
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Final Thoughts
The narrative around Bitcoin is shifting. No longer reacting solely to regulatory crackdowns or technological upgrades, it's increasingly behaving like a global macro asset influenced by monetary policy, institutional flows, and geopolitical dynamics.
And right now, all signs point upward.
With options markets pricing in an $80,000 breakout by late November — regardless of who occupies the Oval Office — Bitcoin bulls aren’t just hoping for new highs. They’re preparing for them.
Whether you're watching from the sidelines or already positioned for the rally, one thing is clear: the next leg of Bitcoin’s journey may be just beginning.
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