The much-anticipated altseason—historically a hallmark of crypto bull markets—appears to be on indefinite pause as recent market dynamics continue to favor Bitcoin over alternative cryptocurrencies. Despite growing speculation and investor interest in altcoins, current indicators suggest that capital is consolidating around Bitcoin, delaying any widespread surge in altcoin performance.
Bitcoin Dominance Poised to Rise to 74%
Market analyst Rekt Capital recently shared insights on X (formerly Twitter), projecting that Bitcoin Dominance could climb to 74% in the current cycle. This forecast follows a successful retest of the 64% dominance level after a brief dip in Bitcoin’s price earlier in the week. Historically, such retests have preceded sustained upward momentum in Bitcoin’s market share without significant pullbacks—typically pushing dominance toward the 71% threshold and beyond.
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Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) measures the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization held by Bitcoin. A rising BTC.D indicates that investors are prioritizing Bitcoin over altcoins, often during periods of uncertainty or consolidation. With dominance already sitting at 64.9% at the time of writing, the path toward 74% suggests continued risk aversion and capital preservation strategies among market participants.
This trend directly challenges the emergence of an altseason, which is traditionally defined by a broad outperformance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. During past bull runs—particularly in 2017 and 2021—altseasons were marked by sharp declines in Bitcoin’s dominance as investors rotated into high-growth altcoins.
Why Altseason Is Still Elusive in 2025
Despite strong performances from select blockchain ecosystems and emerging narratives like AI-integrated tokens, decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN), and restaking protocols, a broad-based altseason has yet to materialize. Analysts point to several structural and psychological factors:
- Increased Market Maturity: Unlike earlier cycles, today’s crypto market features thousands of altcoins, making coordinated rallies more difficult.
- Investor Caution: After volatile bear markets and high-profile project failures, many investors are opting for safer exposure via Bitcoin.
- Regulatory Uncertainty: Ongoing scrutiny from global regulators continues to dampen speculative appetite for lesser-known digital assets.
Some experts argue that while a universal altseason may be unlikely, a selective altseason—where specific high-fundamental projects outperform—remains possible. This shift reflects a more discerning investment approach, favoring innovation, real-world utility, and strong tokenomics over pure speculation.
Altcoin Market Stuck in Sideways Motion
Daan Crypto, another respected voice in technical analysis, highlights that the altcoin market has been trading in a sideways structure for nearly 18 months. Unlike Bitcoin, which has demonstrated clear bullish momentum and repeated all-time highs, altcoins have failed to break out of their consolidation range.
The key resistance level for the altcoin market lies near $1.27 trillion in total market capitalization—a peak reached earlier in 2025. Until there’s a confirmed breakout above this threshold, sustained upward momentum remains unlikely.
Currently, the total altcoin market cap stands at **$1.11 trillion**, representing approximately **35.1%** of the $3.24 trillion global crypto market cap. While this reflects slight daily gains, it pales in comparison to the structural strength shown by Bitcoin.
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Without a decisive move above resistance, traders should expect continued range-bound action, limited volatility, and minimal rotation out of Bitcoin.
Key Factors Influencing the Delayed Altseason
Several macro and micro factors are contributing to the prolonged delay in altseason momentum:
1. Macroeconomic Conditions
Global interest rates, inflation expectations, and liquidity conditions significantly impact risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Tight monetary policies have constrained speculative flows into higher-risk altcoins.
2. Bitcoin ETF Inflows
The approval and success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have channeled institutional capital directly into Bitcoin, further reinforcing its dominance and reducing spillover into altcoin markets.
3. Lack of New Retail Onboarding
Sustained altseason rallies require fresh retail participation. However, user acquisition has slowed compared to previous cycles, limiting buying pressure across smaller-cap projects.
4. Performance Fragmentation
While major layer-1 blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche show promise, their growth remains uneven. Meanwhile, mid- and low-cap altcoins struggle with visibility and liquidity.
What Would Trigger an Altseason?
For an altseason to begin, several conditions must align:
- A confirmed breakout of the altcoin market cap above $1.27 trillion
- Declining Bitcoin Dominance below 60%, signaling capital rotation
- Strong momentum in key altcoin sectors such as DeFi, memecoins, AI tokens, or interoperability protocols
- Renewed retail and institutional interest in non-Bitcoin digital assets
Historically, these shifts occur after Bitcoin establishes a clear top or enters a consolidation phase—freeing up capital for alternative investments.
Until then, traders should remain cautious about chasing low-cap altcoin pumps without strong fundamentals or volume confirmation.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is altseason?
Altseason refers to a period during a cryptocurrency bull market when altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin. It is typically indicated by a drop in Bitcoin Dominance and rising valuations across a broad range of alternative digital assets.
How is Bitcoin Dominance calculated?
Bitcoin Dominance is calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s market capitalization by the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, then multiplying by 100. For example:
(BTC Market Cap / Total Crypto Market Cap) × 100 = BTC.D
Can there be a partial altseason?
Yes. A selective or “mini” altseason can occur when only specific high-performing projects or sectors (e.g., AI tokens or DeFi platforms) rally strongly, even if the broader altcoin market remains flat.
Why hasn’t altseason started yet in 2025?
Multiple factors are at play: strong investor preference for Bitcoin, lack of breakout momentum in altcoin market cap, regulatory caution, and limited new retail inflows. Additionally, macroeconomic conditions remain less favorable for risk-on assets.
What should investors do during a dominance rise?
During rising Bitcoin Dominance, investors may consider securing profits from recent altcoin gains and reallocating to Bitcoin for stability. Others may choose to accumulate strong fundamentals-based altcoins at lower prices in preparation for a future rotation.
Is it too late to invest in altcoins?
No. While timing the start of an altseason is challenging, long-term investors can benefit from dollar-cost averaging into high-conviction projects with real utility and active development.
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Final Outlook
As of now, the data strongly suggests that altseason remains on hold while Bitcoin Dominance prepares for a potential surge toward 74%. The crypto market continues to reflect a risk-off sentiment among investors who are favoring the safety and liquidity of Bitcoin over speculative altcoin plays.
While pockets of innovation and growth persist across various blockchain ecosystems, a broad-based rotation into altcoins will likely require both technical breakouts and renewed confidence from retail and institutional investors.
For traders and long-term holders alike, monitoring Bitcoin Dominance trends and key resistance levels in the altcoin market cap will be essential for identifying early signals of an impending altseason shift.
Until those conditions are met, the spotlight remains firmly on Bitcoin.