XRP ETF Approval a ‘Matter of Time’ – Analyst Predicts BlackRock and Fidelity Entry

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The prospect of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is no longer a question of if—but when. According to Nate Geraci, president of investment advisory firm The ETF Store, the greenlighting of an XRP ETF is simply a matter of time.

Geraci’s bullish stance comes amid shifting regulatory dynamics and growing institutional interest in digital assets. With the SEC’s decision window extending into mid-October 2025, market watchers are closely monitoring developments that could pave the way for XRP to join Bitcoin and Ethereum as the third cryptocurrency with a spot ETF.

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The Road to XRP ETF Approval

The momentum behind an XRP ETF stems largely from Ripple’s legal victory over the SEC. In 2020, the regulator filed a lawsuit against Ripple Labs, alleging that its sale of XRP constituted an unregistered securities offering. However, in a landmark 2023 ruling, a U.S. federal judge determined that XRP sales on public exchanges did not qualify as securities transactions—though institutional sales did.

This partial win laid the foundation for Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s March 2025 announcement that the SEC would drop its long-running lawsuit. Further reinforcing this shift, Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty confirmed the SEC had agreed to drop its appeal—without conditions.

This legal clarity significantly strengthens the case for an XRP ETF. Unlike previous years, where regulatory uncertainty clouded XRP’s status, the current environment suggests a clearer path toward compliance and institutional adoption.

Institutional Giants May Soon Enter

While five XRP ETF applications are currently under SEC review, notable absences include financial titans BlackRock and Fidelity, who pioneered the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, Nate Geraci believes their involvement is inevitable.

“I expect BlackRock, Fidelity, etc. to all be involved,” Geraci stated. “The largest ETF issuers aren’t going to ignore this.”

Though BlackRock’s Samara Cohen previously said no other cryptocurrency besides Bitcoin and Ethereum met the firm’s strict ETF criteria, evolving market conditions and improved regulatory clarity may prompt a reassessment.

Fidelity has also shown growing interest in digital assets beyond its existing ETF offerings. The firm has already launched stablecoin pilot programs and expanded its blockchain-based financial products—signaling a broader strategic shift.

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Market Demand and Projected Inflows

Analysts project strong investor appetite for a spot XRP ETF. Northstake, a virtual asset service provider, estimates that up to $800 million** could flow into XRP ETFs within the first week of trading. JPMorgan takes a more aggressive stance, forecasting **$8 billion in inflows during the first year.

These projections reflect XRP’s unique value proposition: its role in facilitating fast, low-cost cross-border payments. Unlike speculative cryptocurrencies, XRP is deeply integrated into global financial infrastructure through RippleNet, used by banks and payment providers in over 100 countries.

This utility-driven model differentiates XRP from many altcoins and aligns with institutional investment criteria—factors that could sway the SEC’s final decision.

Regulatory Odds Favor Approval

Market sentiment increasingly favors approval. On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, the probability of an XRP ETF being approved in 2025 surged to 87%—the highest level ever recorded.

However, timing remains uncertain. While the overall odds are rising, the likelihood of approval before July 31 dropped to just 32%, indicating investors expect a decision closer to the mid-October deadline.

This delay may reflect the SEC’s cautious approach, especially given political dynamics. Some analysts speculate that a potential shift in regulatory tone under a future administration could accelerate approvals—though this remains speculative.

Current Market Performance

As of this writing, XRP trades at $2.37, down 5.5% over the past week and approximately 30% below its all-time high. Despite short-term volatility, long-term fundamentals appear strong, particularly with ETF speculation driving sustained interest.

Meanwhile, broader crypto markets show mixed performance:

The stagnation in altcoin momentum underscores investor preference for established assets with clear regulatory pathways—further boosting XRP’s case.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Will BlackRock file for an XRP ETF?

While BlackRock has not yet filed an application, industry experts believe it’s only a matter of time. Given its leadership in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and growing demand for regulated crypto exposure, BlackRock is likely evaluating XRP as a viable candidate—especially if regulatory clarity continues to improve.

What does Ripple’s lawsuit settlement mean for the XRP ETF?

The resolution of the SEC lawsuit removes a major barrier to approval. With a court ruling that public XRP sales aren’t securities, and the SEC dropping its appeal, the legal foundation for an ETF has significantly strengthened.

How soon could an XRP ETF launch?

The SEC has until mid-October 2025 to make a decision. Most analysts expect a ruling in the final weeks of that window. If approved, launch could follow within weeks, pending final documentation and market readiness.

Could other cryptocurrencies get spot ETFs after XRP?

Yes—approval of an XRP ETF could set a precedent for other major cryptocurrencies like Solana or Cardano, especially if they can demonstrate non-security status under U.S. law. However, each case will depend on individual project fundamentals and regulatory engagement.

What impact would an XRP ETF have on price?

Historical trends from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggest significant price appreciation post-launch due to institutional inflows. Analysts project short-term volatility followed by sustained upward pressure if demand meets or exceeds expectations.

Is XRP a good long-term investment?

XRP’s utility in global payments infrastructure gives it strong long-term potential. Combined with growing regulatory clarity and possible ETF approval, it remains one of the few cryptocurrencies with real-world enterprise adoption—making it a compelling option for diversified portfolios.

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