Bitcoin has long been hailed as "digital gold," a decentralized store of value immune to inflation and government manipulation. Yet, not everyone agrees. Peter Schiff, a well-known economist and vocal critic of cryptocurrency, has doubled down on his bearish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could crash to as low as $10,000—a staggering 95% drop from its 2021 highs. While many investors remain bullish on BTC’s long-term potential, Schiff’s argument centers on fundamental weaknesses he believes are masked by speculative hype.
His core thesis? Bitcoin isn’t a true safe-haven asset like gold—and when market sentiment shifts, its price will reflect that reality.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Failing Comparison
One of Schiff’s most compelling arguments lies in the comparative performance of Bitcoin and gold. Historically, gold has served as a hedge during economic uncertainty, maintaining or increasing its value when traditional markets falter. In contrast, Bitcoin has increasingly moved in tandem with risk-on assets like tech stocks.
Recent data underscores this trend. As of early 2025, gold broke through the $3,000 per ounce mark amid global economic instability, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s value has weakened—especially when measured against gold.
In December 2021, one Bitcoin was worth approximately 41 ounces of gold. Today, that number has dropped to just 27.4 ounces, representing a more than 30% decline in BTC’s purchasing power relative to gold.
“If Bitcoin is an asset that people only buy when the stock market is going up and risk appetite is high, what is it that investors are buying? It's not a stock as it will never have earnings or pay a dividend. It's clearly not a risk-off asset, a store of value, or digital gold.”
— Peter Schiff
This observation challenges the narrative that Bitcoin is a reliable store of value. If it behaves like a speculative tech stock rather than a safe-haven asset, Schiff argues, then its valuation lacks long-term sustainability—especially in a downturn.
Why Bitcoin Is Considered a Risk Asset
Schiff emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price movements are closely correlated with broader financial markets, particularly during periods of high investor risk appetite. When equities surge, so does BTC. But when fear enters the market, Bitcoin tends to fall—unlike gold, which typically rises.
This behavior classifies Bitcoin as a risk-on asset, not a hedge against systemic collapse. During times of crisis, investors flock to gold, U.S. Treasuries, or cash. They don’t rush into Bitcoin—at least not consistently.
Moreover, Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value. It doesn’t generate income, pay dividends, or represent ownership in a company. Its value is derived entirely from supply scarcity and market demand—a psychological construct vulnerable to shifts in sentiment.
As Schiff puts it: if Bitcoin can’t protect wealth when markets are falling, then what makes it superior to gold?
Market Analysts Weigh In: Bearish Signals Emerge
While Schiff remains one of the most prominent Bitcoin skeptics, he’s not alone in raising cautionary flags.
Peter Brandt: The Bear Wedge Warning
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has identified a “bear wedge” pattern in Bitcoin’s price chart—a technical formation often preceding a significant downward breakout. Based on historical patterns, Brandt suggests Bitcoin could retrace toward $65,635, indicating a potential correction of over 20% from recent highs.
Technical indicators like declining volume and narrowing price ranges support this bearish interpretation. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim key resistance levels, further downside may follow.
Michaël van de Poppe: Signs of Weakness at $80K
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes that while Bitcoin has held above $80,000**, its price action is showing signs of exhaustion. He observes diminishing buying pressure and warns that a break below **$84,000 could trigger a deeper correction.
“It starts to look slightly less good,” van de Poppe stated, highlighting growing uncertainty among traders.
TheKingfisher: Seasonal Reset Ahead?
Another trader, known as TheKingfisher, suggests Bitcoin may be entering a seasonal cooldown phase. Historical cycles show that after major rallies—such as the post-halving surge—Bitcoin often experiences consolidation or pullbacks lasting several months.
This “seasonal reset” doesn’t necessarily signal doom but implies that short-term bullish momentum may be fading.
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Counterarguments: Is Bitcoin Still Strong?
Despite these warnings, many experts believe the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive.
Charlie Morris: Worst May Be Over
Charlie Morris of ByteTree argues that while recent inflows into gold ETFs have outpaced those of Bitcoin, the crypto market may have already bottomed out. He points to improving on-chain metrics and increasing institutional adoption as signs of underlying strength.
Morris also highlights that unlike gold, Bitcoin has a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins—making it inherently deflationary. This scarcity model, combined with growing global awareness, could fuel renewed demand.
Robert Kiyosaki: Silver Over BTC?
Even Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and a longtime advocate for precious metals, sees silver outperforming both gold and Bitcoin in the near term. While he acknowledges Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge, he believes physical assets like silver offer better value in today’s macroeconomic climate.
Still, Kiyosaki hasn’t ruled out future gains for BTC—he simply prioritizes tangible assets during uncertain times.
Key Takeaways for Investors
So, should you be worried about a $10K Bitcoin crash?
Not necessarily—but awareness is crucial. Schiff’s warnings highlight real vulnerabilities:
- Bitcoin behaves more like a tech stock than gold
- It lacks income-generating fundamentals
- Its safe-haven status remains unproven in deep recessions
However, dismissing Bitcoin entirely ignores powerful tailwinds:
- Institutional adoption continues to grow
- Regulatory clarity is improving (e.g., potential 75-day ETF approval window)
- Companies like Metaplanet report soaring Bitcoin-related revenues
The truth likely lies in balance: Bitcoin may not replace gold overnight, but it’s carving out a unique role in modern portfolios.
👉 Compare asset performance across cycles and discover where digital assets fit in your strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why does Peter Schiff think Bitcoin will crash to $10K?
A: Schiff believes Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and functions as a speculative risk asset rather than a true store of value like gold. He expects demand to collapse when market conditions turn bearish.
Q: Is Bitcoin really less stable than gold?
A: Yes—historically, gold maintains or increases in value during crises. Bitcoin has shown volatility and correlation with equities, making it less reliable as a safe haven.
Q: Can Bitcoin recover if it drops below $80K?
A: Technically yes. Past corrections have been followed by strong rebounds. However, sustained losses below key support levels could extend the downturn.
Q: Does underperformance against gold mean Bitcoin is failing?
A: Not necessarily. Gold has centuries of trust behind it. Bitcoin is still maturing as an asset class. Relative performance matters less than long-term adoption trends.
Q: Are all analysts bearish on Bitcoin?
A: No. While some see short-term risks, others like Standard Chartered predict prices reaching $135K by Q3 and $200K by year-end, citing halving effects and ETF inflows.
Q: Should I sell my Bitcoin based on these predictions?
A: Never make investment decisions based on single opinions. Conduct independent research, assess your risk tolerance, and consider dollar-cost averaging to reduce exposure to volatility.
Final Thoughts
Peter Schiff’s prediction of a $10K Bitcoin crash may sound extreme—but it serves as a valuable reminder: not all assets that rise together are equal when they fall. Whether you’re bullish or bearish, understanding the fundamental differences between digital currencies and traditional hedges like gold is essential.
Bitcoin’s journey is far from over. But its ability to withstand true economic storms—without collapsing—remains its greatest test.
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