The crypto world is buzzing with speculation: is the next altseason finally on the horizon? Social media platforms like Twitter are flooded with chatter about an impending surge in altcoin prices. Yet, despite the growing hype, the market tells a more nuanced story. While Bitcoin recently soared to an impressive $111,970, the majority of altcoins remain flat, showing little momentum. This divergence has sparked debate among analysts and investors alike.
Notably, market observer VirtualBacon has issued a cautionary note, suggesting that the current enthusiasm may be premature. Although Bitcoin’s dominance is showing signs of softening and retail sentiment is bullish, most alternative cryptocurrencies have yet to break out. So, what does this mean for the future of altcoins? Is the long-awaited altseason truly around the corner — or are we still waiting for the starting gun?
👉 Discover what signals truly indicate an altseason is underway.
Understanding the Altcoin Season Index
At the heart of altseason predictions lies the Altcoin Season Index, a widely used metric that evaluates the performance of the top 50 non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin cryptocurrencies over a 90-day period. The index calculates the percentage of these altcoins that are outperforming Bitcoin in terms of price growth.
A reading of 75% or higher is traditionally considered the threshold for an official altseason — a period when investor capital rotates from Bitcoin into alternative digital assets. It’s important to note that stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and DAI, as well as asset-backed tokens such as WBTC and stETH, are excluded from this analysis to ensure accurate representation of speculative market movements.
Currently, the data paints a mixed picture. Over the past 90 days, only 24 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap have outperformed Bitcoin. This places the market firmly in what’s known as Bitcoin season — a phase where BTC absorbs the majority of trading volume and investor attention.
However, there are early signs of a shift. Just last month, the Altcoin Season Index climbed from 14 to 25, signaling growing momentum. While still far from the 75% benchmark, this upward trend suggests that capital may begin flowing into altcoins in the coming months.
Bitcoin Dominance: A Key Indicator
One of the most reliable leading indicators of an upcoming altseason is Bitcoin dominance (BTCD) — the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap held by Bitcoin.
Historically, when Bitcoin dominance drops below 50%, it signals a strong rotation of funds into altcoins. At present, BTCD sits at approximately 64%, indicating that Bitcoin still commands the lion’s share of market activity.
Since July 2022, Bitcoin dominance has traded within a well-defined ascending parallel channel. For much of this time, it has hovered near the upper boundary of this range. A notable exception occurred in December 2024, when a strong price bounce pushed dominance to new highs — marked by a green icon on many technical charts.
Despite reaching a peak of 65.38% in May, Bitcoin dominance encountered resistance around the 64% level, forming a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern — a classic technical signal of potential reversal. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown bearish divergence, further reinforcing the idea that upward momentum may be waning.
On shorter timeframes, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 64% acted as strong resistance. This level often marks the ceiling in corrective rallies. If the current decline evolves into a full five-wave downward structure, Bitcoin dominance could break below its long-term channel — a development that would strongly favor an altseason.
The minimum downside target for such a move would be 60.81%, aligning with historical patterns where capital begins rotating into mid- and small-cap altcoins.
👉 See how market dominance shifts can create explosive opportunities.
Signs of Altcoin Strength Emerging
While Bitcoin dominance remains elevated, there are emerging signs of strength in the altcoin market. The Altcoin Dominance Chart, which measures the combined market cap of mid-cap altcoins (excluding the top ten) relative to Bitcoin, has recently broken out of a descending wedge pattern — often interpreted as a bullish reversal formation.
This breakout suggests that the prolonged period of underperformance may be coming to an end. Currently, altcoins are testing the former resistance level as support (marked by a green icon), a critical step in confirming a trend reversal.
A decisive move above 8.75% would confirm the bullish breakout and likely propel altcoin dominance toward the next resistance zone between 10% and 10.60%. Such a move would coincide with increased trading volume, broader market participation, and renewed investor confidence in non-Bitcoin assets.
Historical Patterns and Future Outlook
History offers valuable clues about when the next altseason might unfold. In 2017, altseason ran from July to January, fueled by the ICO boom and widespread retail participation. In 2021, it lasted from January to May, driven by DeFi growth, NFT mania, and institutional adoption.
Based on these cycles, which typically follow major Bitcoin halving events by 12–18 months, experts project a potential altseason window from June to December 2025. This timeline aligns with post-halving market dynamics, where speculative capital begins seeking higher returns beyond Bitcoin.
Although we are not yet in full altseason territory, the confluence of technical indicators — including weakening Bitcoin dominance, rising altcoin strength, and improving sentiment — suggests that the foundation is being laid.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What defines an altseason?
A: An altseason occurs when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period, indicating widespread investor rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies.
Q: How is Bitcoin dominance calculated?
A: Bitcoin dominance is calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s market capitalization by the total cryptocurrency market cap and expressing it as a percentage.
Q: Can altseason happen before Bitcoin peaks?
A: Yes, altseason often begins when Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase. As BTC price movement slows, traders seek higher-growth opportunities in altcoins.
Q: Which altcoins tend to perform best during altseason?
A: Mid-cap projects with strong fundamentals, active development, and growing ecosystems — particularly in DeFi, AI-blockchain integration, and Layer-1 platforms — often lead the rally.
Q: What role do halving events play in triggering altseason?
A: Bitcoin halvings reduce supply inflation, historically leading to bull markets. Around 12–18 months post-halving, capital often shifts to altcoins, sparking altseason.
Q: Is it safe to invest during early signs of altseason?
A: While early entry can yield high returns, it carries risk. Investors should assess project fundamentals, avoid hype-driven assets, and practice proper risk management.
👉 Start preparing your portfolio for the next wave of crypto growth.
While we may not be in full-blown altseason yet, the signals are beginning to align. With Bitcoin dominance showing signs of fragility and technical patterns favoring a shift toward altcoins, mid-2025 could mark the beginning of a powerful new cycle. For informed investors, now is the time to monitor key indicators closely and position strategically for what could be one of the most dynamic phases in the crypto market’s evolution.