In the past 90 days, 15 out of the top 50 non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies have delivered stronger performance than BTC. This shift has reignited discussions across the crypto community: could we be on the verge of an altcoin season?
While no one can predict market movements with certainty, recent data points suggest growing momentum among altcoins. Whether this momentum will evolve into a full-blown altcoin season depends on several key indicators—most notably Bitcoin’s dominance and broader market capitalization trends.
What Is the Altcoin Season Index?
The Altcoin Season Index, provided by Blockchaincenter, currently stands at 31—up from below 25 just days ago. This index measures how many of the top 50 cryptocurrencies (excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins like USDT and USDC) are outperforming BTC over a 90-day period.
For a true altcoin season to be confirmed, at least 75% of these assets—38 out of 50—must outperform Bitcoin. At present, only 30% have achieved this, meaning we’re still significantly short of the threshold.
👉 Discover what drives altcoin momentum and how to spot early signals.
However, the upward trend in the index is notable. It reflects a gradual shift in investor sentiment, with capital beginning to flow into high-potential altcoins such as Sui (SUI), Fantom (FTM), Uniswap (UNI), and Dogecoin (DOGE). These projects have shown strong technical developments, improved on-chain activity, or benefited from macro-level market narratives.
Just weeks ago, most altcoins were lagging behind Bitcoin’s rally. Now, that narrative is starting to change.
Bitcoin Dominance: The Gatekeeper of Altcoin Seasons
One of the most critical factors determining whether an altcoin season materializes is Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D).
Historically, when BTC.D rises, it signals that investors are favoring Bitcoin over other digital assets—often during times of uncertainty or strong bullish momentum in BTC itself. Conversely, when BTC.D declines, it opens the door for altcoins to shine.
As of late, Bitcoin dominance has surged to 60.61%, coinciding with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high following major macro events, including shifts in U.S. political leadership. This level hasn't been seen in over three years and underscores Bitcoin’s continued influence over market direction.
When Bitcoin dominates the narrative and absorbs most of the capital inflows, altcoins typically struggle to gain traction. Therefore, despite growing optimism, the current high dominance suggests that Bitcoin remains in control—potentially delaying a broad altcoin rally.
Still, history shows that dominance doesn’t stay elevated forever. Once Bitcoin’s explosive growth phase slows, traders often rotate into riskier but higher-reward assets—altcoins.
Total Altcoin Market Cap Breaks Key Resistance
Despite Bitcoin's commanding presence, there are emerging signs of strength in the broader altcoin market.
The TOTAL2 index, which tracks the combined market capitalization of the top 100 cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, has recently broken out of a descending triangle pattern on its daily chart—a bullish technical signal.
A descending triangle typically consists of lower highs (forming a downward-sloping resistance line) and a flat support level. A breakout above resistance indicates increasing buying pressure and often precedes a significant upward move.
👉 See how market cap trends can signal major shifts in crypto cycles.
In this case, the breakout suggests that altcoins may be preparing for a coordinated rally. If the momentum holds, TOTAL2 could push past the $1 trillion market cap mark—an important psychological and technical milestone that would further validate the start of an altcoin season.
However, caution remains warranted. If TOTAL2 were to fall back below the former resistance (now acting as support), the bullish case would weaken, and Bitcoin could resume its dominance for the foreseeable future.
Key Altcoins Showing Strong Performance
Several altcoins have already begun to outperform Bitcoin, laying early groundwork for a potential sector-wide surge:
- Sui (SUI): Gaining traction due to its high-speed blockchain architecture and growing DeFi ecosystem.
- Fantom (FTM): Revamped its tokenomics and ecosystem incentives, attracting renewed developer and investor interest.
- Uniswap (UNI): As one of the largest decentralized exchanges, UNI benefits from rising on-chain trading volumes.
- Dogecoin (DOGE): Fueled by social sentiment and meme culture, DOGE continues to capture retail attention during bullish phases.
These projects represent different segments of the crypto economy—Layer 1 blockchains, DeFi, and community-driven tokens—suggesting that strength isn’t isolated to a single niche.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What defines an altcoin season?
An altcoin season occurs when a significant majority—typically 75% or more—of the top 50 cryptocurrencies (excluding Bitcoin) outperform BTC over a sustained period. It often follows a major Bitcoin rally and is marked by increased speculation and capital rotation into alternative digital assets.
Why does Bitcoin dominance matter for altcoins?
Bitcoin dominance reflects the percentage of the total crypto market cap held by BTC. When dominance rises, capital flows into Bitcoin; when it falls, money tends to move into altcoins. A declining BTC.D is usually a prerequisite for a strong altcoin season.
Can an altcoin season happen if Bitcoin keeps rising?
Yes—but only if altcoins rise faster than Bitcoin. Even during periods of BTC price growth, an alt season can occur if investors shift toward higher-risk assets with greater upside potential. However, this requires reduced dominance and strong market confidence.
How long do altcoin seasons typically last?
Past cycles suggest altcoin seasons can last anywhere from 3 to 9 months, depending on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and overall market sentiment. They often peak after Bitcoin stabilizes post-halving or post-ATH.
Which sectors tend to perform best during alt seasons?
Historically strong performers include:
- Layer 1 blockchains (e.g., Ethereum, Solana)
- Decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms
- Meme coins with viral appeal
- Infrastructure projects with real-world adoption
Should I sell Bitcoin to buy altcoins now?
Not necessarily. Timing the market is risky. A balanced strategy might involve holding core BTC exposure while allocating a portion of your portfolio to high-conviction altcoins. Always conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance.
Final Outlook: Watch the Signals Closely
While we’re not yet in a confirmed altcoin season, the pieces are slowly coming together. The rise in the Altcoin Season Index, combined with the breakout in TOTAL2, indicates growing momentum.
However, Bitcoin dominance remains a key hurdle. Until it shows sustained signs of decline, any broad altcoin rally may remain limited or selective.
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As we move toward late 2025, keep a close eye on:
- Changes in BTC.D (look for drops below 58% as a potential trigger)
- Continued strength in TOTAL2 above $900 billion
- Increasing number of top altcoins outperforming BTC
If these trends align, the next altcoin season may indeed be just around the corner.
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