OKX's IPO Bet: Can It Replicate Circle's Market Surge?

In the early 20th century, Joseph P. Kennedy—father of President John F. Kennedy—built his fortune during Prohibition by smuggling alcohol. Years later, he was appointed as the first chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Legend has it that President Roosevelt justified the appointment by saying, “Let’s put a thief to catch a thief.” Kennedy went on to champion financial reform, helping establish the very regulations that still govern Wall Street today.

Fast forward a century, and we see a parallel in the evolution of OKX, once viewed as a regulatory outlaw in the crypto space, now positioning itself for a potential U.S. IPO. Just months after agreeing to pay a $505 million penalty for operating an unlicensed exchange in the United States, OKX is reportedly exploring a public listing on American markets.

This dramatic pivot raises a compelling question: Can a crypto exchange with a controversial past win over Wall Street?

Circle’s recent market performance suggests it’s possible. The USDC issuer saw its stock surge from $31 to nearly $249 in weeks—proving that when a crypto firm embraces compliance, investors respond with enthusiasm. Even Coinbase, already public for four years, has seen its share price climb nearly 40% in the past 10 days, nearing historic highs.

👉 Discover how regulatory transformation can unlock massive market potential.

Different Exchanges, Different Paths

To assess OKX’s IPO prospects, it’s essential to compare it with Coinbase, the only major centralized exchange (CEX) currently listed on U.S. markets.

Both exchanges generate revenue primarily through trading fees, offering core services like spot trading, staking, and custody. But their strategies diverge sharply.

Coinbase pursued a slow-and-steady approach: hiring former regulators, building institutional-grade compliance systems, and preparing meticulously for its 2021 IPO. Today, it boasts a market cap exceeding $90 billion and an average monthly spot trading volume of $92 billion—mostly from U.S. users who value regulatory clarity.

This “tortoise” strategy prioritized long-term trust over rapid growth.

OKX, by contrast, adopted the “hare” model: expand globally first, deal with regulations later. The results speak for themselves. In 2024, OKX recorded an average monthly spot volume of $98.2 billion—6.7% higher than Coinbase—serving 50 million users across 160 countries.

Moreover, OKX dominates in derivatives trading, capturing 19.4% of the global market. It processes around $20 billion in daily spot volume and over $25 billion in derivatives—compared to Coinbase’s $18.6 billion and $3.85 billion, respectively.

But speed came at a cost. While Coinbase built relationships with regulators, OKX actively attracted U.S. customers despite being barred from operating there—a “ask for forgiveness, not permission” mindset that ultimately led to its $505 million settlement.

Now, OKX is signaling change: appointing Roshan Robert, former Barclays executive, as U.S. CEO; opening compliance offices in San Jose, New York, and San Francisco; and assembling a 500-person team focused on regulatory readiness.

They’re now talking about building a “category-defining super app”—a clear shift in tone toward institutional legitimacy.

FAQ: Understanding OKX’s Regulatory Shift

Q: Why is OKX considering an IPO after a major fine?
A: The fine was part of a settlement to resolve past violations. By paying it and restructuring operations, OKX aims to demonstrate compliance readiness—an essential step toward public market credibility.

Q: Can OKX operate legally in the U.S. now?
A: Not yet as a full exchange, but its new U.S. offices and leadership suggest it’s laying the groundwork for future licensing and product offerings under regulatory oversight.

Q: How does OKX’s global presence affect its IPO chances?
A: Global scale is both an advantage and a risk. While it diversifies revenue, it also exposes OKX to rapidly changing regulations across jurisdictions—like Thailand’s recent ban on several exchanges.

Valuation: Math vs. Market Perception

Based purely on trading volume, OKX should be valued at or above Coinbase’s $90+ billion market cap.

Coinbase: ~$92B annualized volume → ~$90B market cap (1x multiple)
OKX: ~$118B annualized volume → implies ~$118B valuation

Even applying conservative assumptions, OKX’s fundamental metrics suggest a valuation between $70 billion and $90 billion, depending on how investors weigh growth against regulatory risk.

However, perception matters. Circle succeeded because it presented a clean regulatory narrative. OKX must convince investors that its past missteps are behind it—and that its global dominance justifies a premium despite lingering compliance concerns.

👉 See how market leaders turn challenges into valuation opportunities.

Competitive Advantages Over Coinbase

OKX brings several key strengths that differentiate it from its U.S.-focused rival:

Global Reach: While Coinbase serves primarily American users, OKX taps into high-growth regions like Asia, Latin America, and parts of Europe where traditional banking infrastructure is limited.
Derivatives Leadership: With 19.4% of the global crypto derivatives market, OKX earns higher-margin fees and attracts sophisticated traders—a segment Coinbase is only now entering with its new perpetual futures offering.
Higher Trading Volume: Despite being privately held and recently penalized, OKX outpaces Coinbase in both spot and derivatives volume—a testament to its product strength and user loyalty.

Coinbase counters with regulatory cleanliness and deep institutional trust—appealing to risk-averse investors. But OKX offers something different: global scale and product innovation.

Key Risks Ahead

Despite its momentum, OKX faces significant hurdles:

Regulatory Uncertainty: Operating in over 160 countries means navigating fragmented and shifting rules. A single ban—like Thailand’s recent move—can erase substantial revenue overnight.
Market Volatility: Exchange revenues are cyclical, tied directly to trading activity. During bear markets, volumes collapse—potentially impacting profitability.
Reputation Risk: Even with settlements in place, any new compliance issue or security breach could severely damage investor confidence.

The Bigger Picture

OKX’s potential IPO isn’t just about one company going public—it’s a test of whether Wall Street will reward global growth even when it comes with regulatory baggage.

Coinbase built a moat through U.S. compliance; OKX built an empire through global adoption. Now, OKX is retrofitting compliance into its existing infrastructure—a far more complex challenge than starting clean.

Yet history shows that markets often forgive—if redemption is credible.

Circle proved investors will back compliant crypto firms with aggressive valuations. OKX is betting they’ll do the same for a company that learned its lessons the hard way—but now plays by the rules.

👉 Explore how redemption stories reshape investor sentiment in digital finance.

FAQ: Investor Outlook and Market Implications

Q: Will institutional investors support OKX’s IPO?
A: It depends on transparency and sustained compliance efforts. Institutions favor predictability—but may accept higher risk for exposure to global crypto demand.

Q: What would success look like for OKX post-IPO?
A: Stable valuation above $70B, expansion into regulated U.S. products, and consistent quarterly growth with clear disclosure—mirroring Circle’s trajectory.

Q: Is this the start of more crypto IPOs?
A: Likely. With Circle’s success and growing maturity in the sector, 2025 could mark the beginning of a new wave of crypto-native companies entering public markets.

Final Thoughts

OKX’s journey—from unregulated platform to IPO contender—mirrors the broader evolution of the crypto industry itself: chaotic beginnings, painful lessons, and eventual maturation.

Its ability to transition from enforcement target to trusted public company will hinge not just on financials, but on narrative—whether investors believe in its transformation.

If successful, OKX won’t just join the ranks of public crypto firms—it could redefine what’s possible for global fintech platforms balancing innovation with regulation.

The market isn’t just asking if OKX deserves a second chance. It’s asking whether crypto’s future belongs to those who play by the rules—or those who rewrite them first.