After a turbulent and dynamic beginning to 2025, Bitcoin is showing compelling signs of alignment with some of the strongest market cycles in its history. With momentum regaining strength, investor sentiment improving, and key on-chain metrics trending positively, a growing number of analysts and market watchers are asking: Could Bitcoin be entering a true supercycle phase?
To answer this, we’ll examine historical cycle patterns, behavioral indicators, long-term holder trends, and macro market structure—all while keeping a close eye on whether the current rally resembles past euphoric peaks like 2017 or represents something entirely new.
Comparing Bitcoin’s Current Cycle to Historical Precedents
One of the most reliable ways to assess Bitcoin’s trajectory is by comparing its growth since the last cycle low. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and periodic corrections, Bitcoin’s price path remains closely aligned with the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 bull runs.
At approximately 900 days since the cycle low, we’re approaching the historical window when previous cycles began their final ascents—typically topping out around 1,100 days. This suggests we may still be in the mid-to-late phase of this bull market, with the most explosive gains potentially still ahead.
👉 Discover how market cycles shape Bitcoin’s price action and what it means for your strategy.
While some argue this cycle could extend longer or deliver lower returns due to increased institutional involvement and regulatory scrutiny, the base case still favors historical parallels. The timing, combined with strong fundamentals, supports the idea that we’re not at the end—but possibly entering the acceleration phase.
Behavioral Indicators Mirror Past Bull Markets
To go beyond price charts, we need to analyze investor psychology. One powerful tool for this is the 2-Year Rolling MVRV-Z Score, an advanced metric that adjusts for lost coins, illiquid supply, and growing institutional ownership.
In early 2025, this indicator peaked at 3.39 when Bitcoin briefly touched $73,000, signaling overvaluation relative to realized value. Since then, the score has declined—a typical pattern during mid-cycle consolidations. What’s notable is that this behavior closely mirrors the 2017 cycle, which featured multiple MVRV-Z peaks before the final blow-off top.
This suggests we may not be witnessing a single parabolic surge, but rather a multi-peak cycle—a structure more complex than previous rallies. If Bitcoin establishes a new all-time high later in 2025, we could be looking at what might become known as Bitcoin’s first triple-peak bull cycle.
A cross-cycle analysis using Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s data reveals that despite being decades apart, the 2013 cycle shows a 91.5% behavioral correlation with today’s market. This is striking, given that 2013 was far more volatile and retail-driven. The similarity lies in the pattern of price discovery: sharp rallies, deep pullbacks, and renewed momentum.
In contrast, the 2017 cycle shows 58.6% behavioral similarity, while 2021, despite strong price correlation (~75%), diverges significantly in investor behavior—likely due to the rise of leveraged trading and short-term speculation.
Long-Term Holders Are Still Accumulating—A Bullish Signal
One of the most telling signs of market health is the behavior of long-term holders. The 1+ Year HODL Wave tracks the percentage of Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in over a year—and it’s currently trending upward, even as prices rise.
This is rare. In most bull markets, long-term holders begin distributing their coins as prices surge. The fact that they’re still holding or even accumulating indicates strong conviction in much higher future prices.
The rate of change in this metric—especially over 30-day windows—has historically marked major turning points:
- Sharp increases signal accumulation after capitulation (bottoms).
- Sharp declines signal distribution (tops).
Currently, the HODL wave is at a neutral inflection point, far from any peak distribution phase. This means we’re not seeing the kind of mass selling that typically precedes a major market top.
👉 See how long-term holder behavior can predict market turning points.
This resilience suggests that whales and institutional investors are not cashing out—they’re positioning for what they believe will be even greater gains ahead.
Is a Supercycle Imminent—or Is More Consolidation Ahead?
Could Bitcoin replicate the euphoric parabolic rally of 2017? While possible, it’s more likely this cycle evolves differently—shaped by modern market dynamics like ETFs, stablecoin liquidity, and global macro conditions.
The idea of a simple “repeat” of 2017 is unrealistic. Bitcoin today is not the same asset it was in 2017. It’s more liquid, more regulated, and increasingly integrated into traditional finance. These changes alter volatility patterns and adoption curves.
However, several structural factors support continued upside:
- Tight supply: With over 80% of BTC held for more than a year, circulating supply is shrinking.
- Rising demand: Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows, and stablecoin issuance is accelerating—often a leading indicator of on-chain activity.
- Institutional interest: More pension funds, endowments, and corporations are allocating to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
These forces suggest we may be approaching a third major peak in this cycle—something never seen before in Bitcoin’s history. Whether this culminates in a supercycle melt-up or a more controlled ascent remains uncertain, but the foundation for significant price expansion is clearly in place.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a Bitcoin supercycle?
A supercycle refers to an extended period of sustained price growth driven by structural demand shifts, often lasting multiple years. In Bitcoin’s context, it implies a rally far exceeding previous highs—potentially reaching $150,000 or more—supported by institutional adoption, macro tailwinds, and supply constraints.
How does the current cycle compare to 2017?
While price trajectories are similar, investor behavior differs. The 2017 rally was retail-driven and highly speculative. Today’s market is more institutionalized, with ETFs and regulated products playing a major role. However, behavioral metrics like MVRV-Z show surprising parallels, suggesting underlying momentum remains strong.
Are long-term holders selling?
No. Data from the 1+ Year HODL Wave shows that long-term holders are still accumulating or holding steady. The absence of mass distribution is a bullish signal that confidence in higher prices remains intact.
Could Bitcoin reach $150,000 in 2025?
While not guaranteed, it’s within the realm of possibility. If historical cycle patterns hold and current momentum continues, a move toward $150,000 could occur—especially if macro conditions remain favorable and institutional inflows accelerate.
What would signal the end of this bull run?
Key warning signs include:
- A sharp drop in the HODL Wave (indicating mass selling).
- MVRV-Z scores exceeding 4.0 (extreme overvaluation).
- Prolonged ETF outflows.
- Macro events like aggressive rate hikes or financial instability.
Is this bull market different from previous ones?
Yes. This cycle is shaped by unprecedented institutional participation, regulatory clarity in some regions, and global macro uncertainty. These factors make it less volatile than past cycles but potentially more durable and impactful in the long term.
Final Thoughts: Structure Over Speculation
While it’s tempting to project past cycles directly onto the present, Bitcoin has evolved. It’s no longer a speculative fringe asset—it’s becoming a recognized macro hedge and store of value.
Yet evolution doesn’t eliminate explosive growth potential. The data shows that key metrics remain aligned with strong upward momentum: historical cycle patterns hold, long-term holders are confident, and demand drivers are multiplying.
Whether we’re heading toward a $150k peak or something even larger, the structural setup supports sustained price expansion. A true supercycle may not look like 2017—but it could surpass it in significance.
👉 Stay ahead of the next market move with real-time data and insights.