孙哥再次砸盘！大量转移 ETH，价格将进一步下探？新地址买入 BTC，Ether.fi 项目方再次抛售，1inch 项目方回购
The cryptocurrency market remains in a state of high volatility as major on-chain movements continue to shape investor sentiment. From large-scale ETH transfers by key wallets to strategic BTC accumulation and token buybacks, the actions of influential players are sending strong signals about potential market directions. This analysis dives deep into the latest blockchain activities involving Ethereum, Bitcoin, ETHFI, and 1INCH, offering data-driven insights and strategic outlooks for traders and investors.
孙哥转移 ETH: A Warning Sign for Ethereum?
An address starting with 0x435—commonly associated with "Sun哥" (a known whale in the crypto space)—transferred 29 ETH on August 29, 2024, to another address under the same cluster. Notably, this marks a shift from previous behavior, where funds were typically moved directly to staking platforms. Instead, the transfer stayed within internal addresses, suggesting possible preparation for future selling or redistribution.
Historically, addresses under this cluster often route assets to exchanges like Binance or Ceffu shortly after internal transfers. Given this pattern, the current movement warrants close attention. If the next step involves sending these ETH holdings to a centralized exchange, it could trigger increased selling pressure in the short term.
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While one transfer of 29 ETH may seem minor in isolation, it’s the behavioral change that raises concern. Combined with broader market weakness, such actions can amplify downward momentum, especially during periods of low liquidity.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Testing Critical Support Levels
Ethereum has been under consistent downward pressure, with prices dropping up to 15% from recent highs. Last week’s technical setup suggested a test of resistance zones accompanied by a potential 2B pattern—a classic signal indicating false breakout strength before reversal.
Currently, ETH remains in a corrective phase. Using Fibonacci retracement levels as a guide, the 0.618 level has acted as temporary support. However, sustained selling could push prices deeper into the 1.5–1.618 extension range, aligning with key psychological and historical support zones.
A critical level to watch is around the 1.13 Fibonacci extension. If price reaches this zone and coincides with structural support (such as prior swing lows or order book density), a four-hour-level bounce may occur. Still, without strong buying volume or on-chain accumulation, any rebound may be short-lived.
Derivatives Market Insights
Spot Market (CVD Analysis):
The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows mild divergence—price dipped but with reduced selling volume—hinting at potential exhaustion. A small bounce occurred recently, yet price has resumed its decline. Traders should monitor whether this zone stabilizes into a short-term bottom or continues lower.
Futures Market (Open Interest):
Open Interest (OI) across ETH futures contracts remains weak on the four-hour chart. There’s been no significant new positioning, reflecting low trader engagement and a generally cold market sentiment.
A key reversal signal would emerge if OI drops below previous lows while price fails to make new lows—a classic divergence setup suggesting capitulation and possible trend reversal.
New Address Accumulates BTC: A Contrarian Signal?
On August 29, 2024, a fresh address starting with 3LcCJ withdrew 100 BTC from Binance. This follows an earlier withdrawal of 300 BTC on August 12 from Cobo Wallet. While historical data is limited to just two operations, both occurred near local price bottoms—suggesting this entity may be a contrarian buyer stepping in during dips.
Although single data points aren’t enough to confirm a trend, early accumulation by new large holders often precedes institutional interest or strategic positioning ahead of potential rallies.
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Given Bitcoin’s current correction, this accumulation could indicate growing confidence among select investors despite broader bearish sentiment. Monitoring further inflows into this wallet will be essential in assessing its influence.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bearish Structure Takes Hold
Bitcoin mirrors Ethereum’s weakness but lacks a clear resistance test pattern. The recent move upward stalled between the 1.13 and 1.272 Fibonacci extensions—an area that previously acted as support but now serves as resistance.
For a true bullish breakout to validate, BTC must clear the 1.382 extension and sustain above prior swing highs. So far, neither condition has been met.
Instead, price has broken below key support levels in both trend structure and horizontal support lines. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement has already been tested, opening the door for a deeper pullback toward the 1.618 extension—a zone overlapping with July’s low. This area represents a potential daily-level support worth watching closely.
Derivatives Data Breakdown
Spot Market (CVD):
Selling pressure remains visible in spot CVD metrics. Despite slowing price declines, sell-side volume hasn’t diminished—indicating ongoing distribution.
A bottom formation may only begin once selling dries up significantly and price stabilizes in this range.
Futures Market (OI & Liquidations):
Open Interest has returned to neutral levels after last week’s drop. However, recent data shows large long liquidations alongside increasing short positions—suggesting aggressive bearish bets are entering.
While not yet extreme, this shift reflects growing short-term bearish conviction. A sudden reversal could trigger a short squeeze, but sustained downside remains the base case.
BTC Implied Volatility:
Implied volatility in options markets remains subdued. Despite the recent drop, there’s no spike in fear or hedging activity—pointing to overall neutral market psychology.
This suggests traders expect continued range-bound movement rather than a sharp directional move—at least in the near term.
Ether.fi Project Team Sells Again: ETHFI Under Pressure
The project wallet starting with 0x57CC transferred 1.48 million ETHFI tokens to Binance on August 30, 2024. This brings total transfers to 7.068 million ETHFI, leaving only 2.932 million remaining in the wallet.
This continuous dump aligns with ETHFI’s post-launch trajectory—peaking at $8.60 and never recovering. With no fundamental catalysts or strong on-chain accumulation to support recovery, the token remains in a structurally weak position.
Technical analysis reveals a vacuum below current prices—no strong support zones exist until the early-August lows are retested. Without buy-side intervention from the team or external demand, any rally is likely to be short-lived.
1inch Team Executes Major Buyback: Bullish Signal?
In contrast to Ether.fi’s selling spree, the 1inch team demonstrated confidence by purchasing 9.268 million 1INCH tokens between August 28 and early September 2024.
This follows a prior buyback in July (1.847 million tokens) and reverses earlier selling trends seen throughout 2023 and early 2024.
The wallet—identified as the Team Investment Fund—now holds 26.738 million 1INCH tokens. Such coordinated accumulation suggests long-term strategic positioning, possibly ahead of future protocol upgrades or governance decisions.
1INCH Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, signs of a potential large-scale bottom are emerging:
- Aggressive traders might look for liquidity sweeps—areas where stops are likely clustered—before initiating long positions.
- Conservative traders should wait for confirmation at the Point of Control (POC), where trading activity is most concentrated, as a bullish breakout signal.
With fundamentals improving through active treasury management and team involvement, 1INCH stands out as one of the few projects showing internal strength amid broader market weakness.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does Sun哥’s ETH transfer mean for the market?
A: While not an immediate sell signal, the internal transfer breaks from staking norms and may precede exchange deposits. Watch for follow-up moves to Binance or other exchanges as confirmation of bearish intent.
Q: Is now a good time to buy ETH or BTC?
A: Not yet—at least not without confirmation. Both assets are in corrective phases with broken support structures. Wait for signs of stabilization: rising CVD, OI divergence, or bullish engulfing patterns on daily charts.
Q: Why is Ether.fi selling so much?
A: Likely part of a pre-planned token release schedule or treasury management strategy. However, continuous dumping without communication erodes confidence and suppresses price recovery.
Q: Does 1inch’s buyback guarantee a price rise?
A: No—it increases confidence and reduces circulating supply, but price action still depends on broader market conditions and trader sentiment.
Q: How reliable is new BTC accumulation by unknown addresses?
A: Early-stage accumulation can be meaningful if repeated over time. One transaction isn’t conclusive, but consistent buying near lows often signals informed participation.
Q: What tools help track whale movements?
A: On-chain analytics platforms like Arkham Intelligence or Nansen allow real-time monitoring of large wallet activities—critical for anticipating market-moving events.
Conclusion
Markets are currently navigating a fragile phase marked by whale distributions, selective accumulation, and divergent project strategies. While ETH and BTC face downside risks due to broken structures and weak derivatives data, pockets of strength—like 1inch’s buyback—offer selective opportunities.
Traders should prioritize risk management, use Fibonacci levels and on-chain signals as guides, and remain alert to shifts in whale behavior. In uncertain times, patience and precision matter most.
Core Keywords: Ethereum price analysis, Bitcoin derivatives data, ETHFI token sell-off, 1inch buyback, whale wallet tracking, Fibonacci retracement levels, on-chain analysis