The Rise and Fall of Cryptocurrency: Three Paths Forward

·

The cryptocurrency market experienced a dramatic downturn between November 2021 and May 2022, shedding 61% of its value—from $2.9 trillion to $1.24 trillion. This sharp decline echoes historical financial crises: the 83% drop in NYSE stock prices from 1929 to 1932 and the 54% fall in the Dow Jones during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Bitcoin, the flagship digital asset, plummeted from nearly $68,000 in November 2021 to around $25,402 by May 2022—a 63% loss. Coinbase, a major exchange, fell from $381 to $61 over the same period, while TerraUSD, an algorithmic stablecoin, crashed from parity with the U.S. dollar to just 10 cents within 24 hours.

This volatility has reignited debate over how the United States should respond. Drawing on policy frameworks reminiscent of Dante’s Divine Comedy, three distinct paths emerge: prohibition, regulation, or competition through a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Each path offers different implications for innovation, investor protection, financial stability, and national competitiveness.

Biden’s Executive Order: A Coordinated Approach

In March 2022, President Biden issued an executive order directing a comprehensive assessment of digital assets across more than 20 federal agencies. The directive emphasizes consumer protection, financial stability, anti-money laundering (AML) compliance, and U.S. leadership in financial technology.

Notably, it calls for interagency coordination involving the Treasury, Federal Reserve, SEC, CFTC, FTC, and others—even including intelligence and environmental bodies due to cryptocurrency’s broad societal impact. It also supports international cooperation through G7, G20, and FATF initiatives.

A key goal is evaluating the potential development of a U.S. CBDC. While no single agency leads this effort yet, the order sets the stage for unified policy development—acknowledging that fragmented oversight could undermine effectiveness.

👉 Discover how next-gen financial systems are shaping global markets

Path 1: Prohibiting High-Risk Cryptocurrencies

Complete bans on financial products aren't unprecedented. The U.S. Constitution banned state-issued fiat; Andrew Jackson dismantled the Second Bank of the U.S.; and New York outlawed tontine life insurance in 1905 due to exploitative practices.

Today, similar concerns surround certain cryptocurrencies:

Rather than banning all crypto, a targeted prohibition makes sense: outlaw energy-intensive proof-of-work systems and anonymous networks that hinder law enforcement. This mirrors how tontine insurance was banned while life insurance survived.

Such a policy would push innovators toward greener alternatives like proof-of-stake (e.g., Ethereum’s shift) and transparent, compliant platforms—without stifling blockchain’s transformative potential.

Path 2: Comprehensive Regulation via a New Agency

Regulatory fragmentation plagues current oversight. The SEC claims jurisdiction over securities-like tokens; the CFTC treats crypto as commodities; FinCEN handles AML compliance; and state regulators impose varying rules.

This patchwork creates regulatory arbitrage, enforcement gaps, and legal uncertainty—echoing pre-Dodd-Frank financial chaos. After the 2008 crisis, Congress created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to centralize consumer finance oversight. A parallel model is needed for digital assets.

Why a Dedicated Crypto Regulator?

A new independent agency could:

Such a regulator would close loopholes exploited by bad actors while supporting responsible innovation.

Applying the Howey Test to Crypto

Under U.S. law, an asset is a security if it involves:

  1. Investment of money,
  2. In a common enterprise,
  3. With expectation of profit from others’ efforts.

The SEC has used this test to classify many ICOs and staking programs as unregistered securities. Its successful enforcement actions underscore the need for clear rules—not retroactive crackdowns.

Stablecoins: Risks Behind the Stability

Stablecoins like Tether promise price stability but vary widely in backing:

The latter poses systemic risk. As seen in 2022, when confidence falters, algorithmic models fail catastrophically.

👉 Learn how secure digital asset platforms are redefining trust

Path 3: Competing with a U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)

Instead of banning or regulating private crypto, the U.S. could offer a superior alternative: a Federal Reserve-issued CBDC.

The January 2022 Money and Payments report outlined possible benefits:

However, challenges remain:

Unlike decentralized cryptocurrencies, a U.S. CBDC would be centralized, regulated, and fully integrated into the existing financial system—offering safety without sacrificing efficiency.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is cryptocurrency inherently illegal in the U.S.?
A: No. While some uses violate laws (e.g., money laundering), owning or trading crypto is legal. Regulatory clarity focuses on how it’s used—not blanket prohibition.

Q: Can the government ban Bitcoin?
A: Technically yes—but practically difficult. A ban on energy-intensive mining or anonymous transactions is more feasible and targeted than outlawing ownership.

Q: Are NFTs considered securities?
A: It depends on structure. If buyers expect profits from others’ efforts (e.g., artist-driven value growth), they may meet the Howey test. Most current NFTs are treated as collectibles.

Q: Will a U.S. CBDC replace cash?
A: Not necessarily. The Fed intends CBDC to complement physical currency—not eliminate it—preserving choice and privacy.

Q: How does proof-of-stake reduce environmental harm?
A: Unlike proof-of-work (which requires massive computation), proof-of-stake validates transactions based on holdings, slashing energy use by over 99%.

Q: What happens if I lose my crypto wallet key?
A: Access is typically lost forever. Unlike traditional banking, there’s no “forgot password” option—emphasizing the need for secure custody solutions.

Conclusion: A Balanced Future for Digital Assets

The U.S. doesn’t have to choose one path exclusively. A hybrid strategy is both realistic and optimal:

  1. Prohibit environmentally harmful and criminally opaque crypto systems.
  2. Regulate all digital assets under a unified framework with strong disclosure and investor safeguards.
  3. Compete by developing a safe, efficient CBDC that enhances payment infrastructure.

Together, these approaches can foster innovation while protecting consumers, ensuring financial stability, and maintaining American leadership in global finance.

👉 Explore secure gateways to the future of digital finance