Despite a strong resurgence in recent months, key market indicators suggest the current crypto bull run is far from over. While the broader digital asset market has already surged about 35% since the start of 2025, it still remains roughly 20% below its all-time peak of $2.8 trillion reached in late 2021. This recovery has reignited excitement — and skepticism. Some investors wonder if the momentum has already peaked, making new entries risky.
However, a deeper look at the data reveals a different story: the bull market may still be in its early stages. Historical metrics across Bitcoin valuation, exchange trading volume, and decentralized finance (DeFi) adoption all point to substantial room for growth. Below, we explore three compelling charts that illustrate why the best days of this cycle could still lie ahead.
Understanding Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to serve as the cornerstone of the crypto market, representing nearly half of the total market capitalization. As such, its valuation trends offer critical insights into broader market sentiment.
One of the most reliable long-term indicators is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. Developed by analysts David Puell and Murad Mahmudov, MVRV compares Bitcoin’s current market value — calculated by multiplying circulating supply by price — with its realized value, which accounts for the last known transaction price of each coin.
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This distinction is crucial. Unlike market cap, which assumes all coins are valued at the latest price, realized value reflects actual investor cost basis. When MVRV rises above 3.5, it has historically signaled overheated markets and impending corrections — as seen in 2017 and 2021. Conversely, values below 1 often mark capitulation points, or market bottoms.
As of now, Bitcoin’s MVRV sits at just 2.3 — well below the levels that typically precede major pullbacks. This suggests that while gains have been made, widespread profit-taking and speculative frenzy have yet to materialize. In other words, the majority of holders aren’t in deep profit territory, reducing the likelihood of a near-term top.
For investors, this means the current uptrend may still be driven more by recovery than euphoria — a hallmark of early-to-mid cycle phases.
Coinbase Trading Volume: Room to Run
Exchange trading volume is another powerful gauge of market participation and investor engagement. Among global platforms, Coinbase stands out due to its U.S. regulatory compliance and transparent quarterly reporting, offering a reliable window into retail and institutional activity.
During the peak of the 2021 bull market, Coinbase recorded over $548 billion in trading volume in Q4 alone. That level of activity reflected massive inflows from new users, retail traders, and institutional players alike.
Fast forward to today: recent earnings reports show Coinbase’s total quarterly trading volume at $154 billion — a significant increase from crypto winter lows but still less than one-third of prior highs.
This gap indicates that a large portion of potential market participants have yet to re-enter. The average investor remains cautious, and mainstream adoption is far from saturated. Historically, bull markets gain momentum as more users return and trading activity accelerates.
Given this trajectory, reaching — or even exceeding — previous volume records is not only possible but likely if macro conditions remain favorable and regulatory clarity improves.
Moreover, each major crypto cycle has set new benchmarks for on-chain activity and user growth. With innovations like tokenized assets, Web3 identity systems, and improved scalability solutions now emerging, this cycle could unlock even broader use cases and attract a more diverse investor base.
The DeFi Opportunity: Still in Early Days
Decentralized finance (DeFi) represents one of the most transformative applications of blockchain technology. By enabling permissionless lending, borrowing, trading, and yield generation through smart contracts, DeFi challenges traditional financial intermediaries and opens access to global capital markets.
While still evolving, DeFi has already demonstrated explosive growth potential. Today, the total value locked (TVL) across major protocols sits at approximately $85 billion — a notable rebound from bear market lows.
However, this figure remains less than half of DeFi’s all-time high of over $175 billion, achieved in November 2021. That peak coincided with intense speculation, high leverage, and aggressive yield farming incentives.
The current recovery, by contrast, appears more sustainable. Many protocols have strengthened risk management, reduced reliance on inflationary token emissions, and expanded cross-chain interoperability. Ethereum remains the dominant ecosystem, but layer-2 networks and alternative blockchains are contributing to a more resilient and diversified infrastructure.
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Looking ahead, catalysts such as real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, improved user experience, and regulatory frameworks could propel DeFi into mainstream relevance. If adoption follows past trends, we may see TVL surpass previous highs well before the end of this cycle.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is it too late to invest in crypto during this bull run?
A: Not necessarily. While prices have risen significantly from 2023 lows, key indicators like Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio and exchange trading volume suggest the market hasn’t reached peak enthusiasm. Historically, the steepest gains occur in later stages — meaning early positioning can still yield strong returns.
Q: What does MVRV tell us about market sentiment?
A: MVRV helps distinguish between recovery phases and speculative bubbles. A low ratio indicates many holders are still near breakeven or slight profit, signaling room for further upside before widespread selling pressure builds.
Q: Why is Coinbase trading volume important?
A: As a regulated U.S.-based exchange, Coinbase offers transparent data on real user activity. Low volume compared to prior peaks suggests many investors haven’t re-engaged — a sign of untapped demand.
Q: Can DeFi really double its value again?
A: Yes. Despite setbacks during the bear market, DeFi fundamentals have improved. With innovations like RWA integration and better security models, another surge past $175 billion in TVL is plausible — especially with increased institutional interest.
Q: How do past cycles inform future expectations?
A: Every four-year crypto cycle has resulted in higher all-time highs for Bitcoin and major altcoins. While timelines vary, increasing global adoption and technological maturity support continued long-term growth.
Final Thoughts: The Bull Market Is Just Warming Up
The evidence across multiple metrics paints a consistent picture: despite visible momentum, the current crypto bull market has not yet matured. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio remains below overheated levels, trading volume on major exchanges like Coinbase is still recovering, and DeFi ecosystems have only reclaimed half their previous peak value.
These signals suggest that while early gains have been realized, we are likely still in the middle innings of this cycle. For forward-thinking investors, this presents an opportunity to engage before broader market participation drives prices higher.
As blockchain technology evolves and real-world utility expands, crypto’s role in the global financial system appears increasingly inevitable. Whether through core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum or innovative sectors like DeFi and tokenized assets, the ecosystem continues to build toward mass adoption.
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Now may be the ideal time to deepen your understanding, assess your strategy, and prepare for what comes next — because history shows that the most significant moves often happen when optimism becomes undeniable.
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