The debate over whether Bitcoin’s bull run has ended is heating up, with conflicting signals from top analysts across the crypto space. At the center of the discussion is Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, whose recent reversal on market sentiment has sparked widespread attention.
Just weeks after affirming that the Bitcoin bull cycle remained intact—albeit progressing slowly—Ju now claims the rally is over. In a post published on X (formerly Twitter) on March 17, he stated: “The Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended. Expect bearish or sideways price action over the next 6 to 12 months.”
This shift marks a notable departure from his earlier optimism, raising questions about what’s driving the change in outlook and whether other market indicators support such a bearish forecast.
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On-Chain Metrics Point to Deteriorating Sentiment
Ju’s latest analysis hinges on a broad deterioration in key on-chain metrics, which he says collectively indicate a transition into bearish territory.
“Every on-chain signal is now bearish,” Ju explained. “As new liquidity dries up, new whales are selling BTC at lower prices.” This observation suggests weakening demand and a shift in accumulation behavior among large holders—a historically reliable precursor to prolonged price stagnation or decline.
One particularly telling metric is Bitcoin’s funding rate, which has recently hovered near 0%. As reported by Cointelegraph, this neutrality reflects growing uncertainty among derivatives traders, who are no longer confidently betting on further upside. When funding rates approach zero, it often means the speculative fervor that fuels bull markets is cooling off.
Compare this to early March, when Ju himself acknowledged that while momentum was sluggish, fundamentals were still supportive. On March 4, he noted: “Fundamentals remain strong, with more miners coming online.” At the time, his stance was cautiously optimistic—now, it’s clearly shifted toward caution.
Contradictory Views: Not All Analysts See Doom Ahead
Despite Ju’s warning, not all experts agree that the bull market is dead. Pav Hundal, Chief Analyst at Swyftx, downplayed fears of an imminent collapse.
“There’s no reason to panic,” Hundal told Cointelegraph. He attributed recent volatility to macroeconomic jitters—particularly surrounding U.S. President Trump’s proposed tariff policies—that have spooked investors across asset classes.
However, Hundal emphasized that broader economic data remains encouraging. “All signs point to the global economy moving in the right direction,” he said. “When risk appetite returns, capital will flow back into risk assets like Bitcoin.”
This sentiment aligns with historical patterns where periods of consolidation precede renewed rallies—especially when macro liquidity conditions are favorable.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $83,030, according to CoinMarketCap data—a 14.79% drop over the past month. While significant, this pullback doesn’t necessarily spell the end of the cycle.
Global M2 Money Supply Hits Record High – Bullish Catalyst?
Some analysts argue that one of the most powerful drivers of Bitcoin’s long-term price action—global money supply—is flashing bullish signals.
Seth, a prominent crypto analyst, highlighted this trend in a recent X post: “Global money supply has hit a new all-time high again. We’re likely to see Bitcoin rebound soon.”
Historically, expansions in broad money supply (M2) have preceded major Bitcoin rallies. With central banks continuing accommodative policies and governments increasing fiscal spending, the argument goes that excess liquidity will eventually find its way into hard assets like Bitcoin.
Dave Weisberger, CEO of trading platform CoinRoutes, echoed this view. On March 17, he noted: “If Bitcoin’s beta to money supply holds, we could see a new all-time high within a month.”
This correlation between monetary expansion and Bitcoin performance has held through multiple cycles, suggesting that even if short-term momentum falters, structural tailwinds remain intact.
Historical Data Suggests Bitcoin Is Still Undervalued
Even more compelling is the perspective offered by Alan Knitowski, former CEO of Phunware, who argues that Bitcoin is currently trading far below its historical cycle lows.
“In this phase of the cycle, the historical price floor should be around $250,000,” Knitowski stated on X. “We’re nearly 67% below where we should be based on prior patterns.”
While this may seem overly optimistic given current prices, it underscores a crucial point: many long-term models suggest that Bitcoin has yet to reach its full potential in this cycle—even after surpassing $100,000 earlier in the year.
Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, shared a similarly constructive outlook. In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, he said: “We have over a 50% chance of seeing a new all-time high by the end of June.”
Bitcoin’s current record stands at $109,000, set on January 20—just hours before President Trump’s inauguration.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What caused CryptoQuant CEO to change his view on Bitcoin?
A: Ki Young Ju shifted his stance due to deteriorating on-chain indicators, including declining liquidity and whale selling activity. He now believes the bull market has ended based on these structural changes.
Q: Is a sideways or bearish trend confirmed for Bitcoin?
A: Not definitively. While some metrics suggest weakness, others—like record global M2 growth—point to potential upside. Market direction will likely depend on macro developments and investor sentiment in coming months.
Q: Can Bitcoin still reach new highs in 2025 despite recent drops?
A: Yes. Analysts like Cory Klippsten and Dave Weisberger believe there's a strong possibility of new highs by mid-2025, especially if liquidity continues flowing into financial markets.
Q: How reliable are on-chain metrics for predicting price movements?
A: On-chain data provides valuable insights into supply distribution, investor behavior, and network health. While not foolproof, it’s widely regarded as one of the most objective tools for assessing market cycles.
Q: What role does global money supply play in Bitcoin’s price?
A: Expansions in M2 money supply often lead to inflationary pressures and devaluation of fiat currencies. Investors turn to scarce digital assets like Bitcoin as hedges, driving demand and price appreciation over time.
The Big Picture: Bull Market Over or Pausing?
The crypto community remains divided. On one side, you have Ju’s cautionary narrative backed by weakening on-chain dynamics. On the other, optimists point to macro fundamentals and historical precedents suggesting that this dip could be a buying opportunity rather than a signal of cycle exhaustion.
What’s clear is that Bitcoin’s journey is rarely linear. Periods of consolidation, fear, and skepticism often precede explosive growth phases. Whether this moment marks the end of a bull run or merely a pause before the next leg up depends on how investors interpret—and act upon—the data available.
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Regardless of short-term volatility, one thing remains certain: Bitcoin continues to evolve as both an asset class and a global financial phenomenon. For those watching closely, the current crossroads offers both risk—and potentially transformative reward.