Bitcoin (BTC) has remained range-bound near the $100,000 mark despite growing institutional adoption and strong inflows into spot ETFs. According to market analyst Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, the stagnation stems from a significant shift in supply dynamics—long-term holders, particularly early adopters, are offloading their BTC to institutional investors.
This trend has created a unique market phase where demand from new corporate treasuries and ETFs absorbs the supply released by OG Bitcoin holders who’ve held since the asset’s earlier days.
👉 Discover how Bitcoin’s latest market phase could trigger the next major move.
Why Is Bitcoin Not Breaking Higher?
“People are wondering why Bitcoin has been stuck around $100,000 for so long, even with institutional FOMO,” Edwards said on June 29. “The reason is simple: the OGs—the original holders—are selling to Wall Street and unwinding their positions.”
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, long-term holders have steadily reduced their BTC exposure. Edwards attributes this to a natural cycle of profit-taking after years of holding through volatility. These early investors, many of whom acquired BTC at very low prices, are now capitalizing on the arrival of institutional demand as a strategic exit point.
To illustrate this shift, Edwards shared a chart tracking Bitcoin holder cohorts by holding duration. It revealed a sharp increase in the six-month holder group—a cohort representing new corporate treasuries and institutional entrants.
“The amount of Bitcoin accumulated by this six-month holder group over the past two months has completely offset all the supply sold by long-term holders over the previous 1.5 years,” he explained.
This dynamic suggests that while older hands are exiting, a new wave of structured, long-term accumulation is taking their place—ushering in what Edwards calls the “Bitcoin treasury flywheel.”
The Rise of the Bitcoin Treasury Flywheel
Edwards predicts that corporate Bitcoin adoption will soon rival, if not surpass, the impact of spot ETFs. He refers to this accelerating trend as the “Bitcoin treasury flywheel”—a self-reinforcing cycle where more companies buy BTC for balance sheet strength, prompting others to follow suit.
“We’ve clearly entered the hype phase, as many copycats have now entered the market,” he noted.
Recent weeks have seen a surge in corporate treasuries adding Bitcoin to their reserves. Notable entrants include:
- Cardone Capital, a real estate investment firm led by Grant Cardone
- ProCap, Anthony Pompliano’s venture firm planning a public listing
- Panther Metals, an Australian mineral exploration company
- Green Minerals, a Norwegian deep-sea mining firm
These companies are not just making symbolic purchases—they’re integrating BTC as a core treasury asset, signaling confidence in its long-term value proposition.
👉 See how institutions are reshaping Bitcoin’s future demand.
This institutional accumulation is happening at a critical time. While early holders sell, the market isn’t collapsing—because demand is being absorbed efficiently. The result? A stable, sideways price action that masks a deeper structural transformation.
Short-Term Profit-Taking and Macro Uncertainty
In the short term, traders are also contributing to price consolidation. Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE crypto exchange, told Cointelegraph that many traders are locking in profits ahead of key macroeconomic events.
“There’s profit-taking ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, as market participants hedge against potential downside if trade negotiations don’t go smoothly,” Mei explained.
He added that while large-scale corporate accumulation takes time, the trend is undeniable: more public companies are adopting Bitcoin into treasury operations. “Though accumulation is gradual, we expect the market to stabilize next year as more long-term holders enter.”
Meanwhile, Han Xu, Head of Liquid Fund Investments at HashKey Capital, emphasized that investors are closely watching U.S. macro data and policy developments.
“Updates on reciprocal tariffs and progress on the Trump budget proposal are key risk factors that need resolution before the bullish trend can resume,” Han said, warning that any negative surprises could trigger short-term sell-offs.
Range-Bound Trading Continues
Since early May 2025, when Bitcoin briefly broke above six figures for the second time this year, price action has been largely confined to a range between $102,000 and $110,000. While there have been brief spikes and dips, no sustained breakout has occurred.
Despite this consolidation, demand remains strong. U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $3.2 billion in net inflows over the past two weeks—with zero days of outflows. This consistent buying pressure underscores robust institutional appetite.
At the same time, the number of companies adopting Bitcoin into their treasury strategies continues to grow weekly. This dual engine—ETFs and corporate treasuries—is quietly reshaping Bitcoin’s demand landscape.
On June 30, Bitcoin rose 1.2%, testing resistance at $108,750—the highest level in two weeks—but failed to break through at the time of writing.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is Bitcoin not rising despite strong ETF inflows?
A: While ETFs are bringing in significant capital, this demand is being offset by selling pressure from early Bitcoin holders who are cashing out to institutions. This balance between strong buying and strategic selling has led to price consolidation.
Q: Who are the “OGs” selling Bitcoin?
A: “OGs” refers to original Bitcoin holders—early adopters who acquired BTC in its formative years at low prices. With institutional demand now established via ETFs and corporate treasuries, these holders are monetizing their long-held positions.
Q: What is the “Bitcoin treasury flywheel”?
A: It’s a self-reinforcing cycle where companies adopt Bitcoin as a treasury asset, inspiring others to follow. As more firms buy and hold BTC, it strengthens its legitimacy and drives further adoption, creating sustained demand.
Q: Are corporate Bitcoin purchases significant enough to impact price?
A: Yes. While individual corporate buys may seem small, the cumulative effect—combined with ETF inflows—is substantial. Companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla have already shown how strategic accumulation can influence market sentiment and supply dynamics.
Q: Could macro events affect Bitcoin’s price in the near term?
A: Absolutely. Upcoming U.S. macro data releases, trade policy updates (like tariff deadlines), and fiscal developments can create volatility. Traders often hedge ahead of such events, leading to short-term profit-taking.
Q: Is sideways trading bullish or bearish for Bitcoin?
A: In this context, it’s neutral-to-bullish. Range-bound action during strong institutional accumulation often precedes a breakout. Historically, periods of consolidation after major rallies lead to stronger upward moves once momentum resumes.
The current phase of Bitcoin’s market cycle may appear stagnant on the surface—but beneath it lies a profound transition. As early believers exit and institutions enter, the ownership structure of BTC is evolving. This shift may be setting the stage for a more mature, sustainable bull run in 2026.
👉 Stay ahead of the next Bitcoin breakout with real-time market insights.