The crypto market has been buzzing with speculation about whether we're currently in a full-blown bull market. On the surface, certain metrics seem to suggest a powerful upward trend—especially when looking at Bitcoin’s on-chain activity over the past year. However, a deeper analysis reveals a more nuanced reality. While there are bullish signals, the current market may not be as strong—or as advanced—as many assume.
Misleading On-Chain Metrics: The Case of Transaction Volume
One of the most frequently cited indicators of a bull market is rising transaction volume. Glassnode’s recent weekly report highlights a chart of Bitcoin’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of transaction volume (Tx Volume) from October 2023 to early 2024. At first glance, this pattern bears a striking resemblance to the period between October 2020 and September 2021—a time widely recognized as the heart of the last major bull run.
This visual similarity has led some analysts and retail investors to conclude that we are not only in a bull market but that it’s already halfway through.
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However, this comparison is fundamentally flawed. The structure of Bitcoin’s transaction volume has undergone a significant transformation since 2023, primarily due to the explosive growth of Taproot Witness transactions—a technical upgrade enabling more complex smart contract-like functionality on Bitcoin. These transactions are heavily used by protocols involved in inscriptions (such as BRC-20 tokens) and runes, which did not exist during the previous cycle.
At its peak, Taproot-related activity accounted for 41.8% of total transaction volume. This means that a large portion of the apparent surge in network usage isn’t driven by organic demand for Bitcoin as a store of value or medium of exchange, but rather by speculative activity around new token standards built on top of Bitcoin.
Miner Revenue Tells a Different Story
Another key indicator that contradicts the "super bull market" narrative is Bitcoin miner revenue, particularly fees collected from transactions.
During the 2020–2021 bull run, miner fees surged dramatically as network congestion increased and users competed to get their transactions confirmed. At times, average fees exceeded $50 per transaction.
In contrast, despite high transaction counts in late 2023 and early 2024, miner fee revenue has remained relatively modest. When you strip away the spike caused by inscription and rune mints—events that generate thousands of small, low-fee transactions—the underlying fee base looks more like a recovery from the 2022 bear market than the explosive growth seen in prior cycles.
This suggests that while there is increased activity, it lacks the economic intensity and user demand characteristic of a true macro bull market.
Exchange Trading Volumes Show Seasonality, Not Sustained Growth
Let’s examine another critical metric: spot trading volume across major cryptocurrency exchanges from November 2022 to mid-2024.
Instead of showing a consistent upward trend, the data reveals clear seasonal patterns—notably spikes in Q4 (October–December) and Q1 (January–March). These recurring surges align with historical trends where investor sentiment improves after summer lows, often fueled by macroeconomic expectations or regulatory developments.
But notably absent is any sustained breakout in volume. There’s no hockey-stick growth curve, no widespread institutional inflow, and no evidence of mass retail adoption yet.
This reinforces the idea that what we’ve experienced since late 2023 is not a single continuous bull run, but rather:
- A seasonal autumn rally
- Followed by a spring rebound
- Amplified by the hype around new asset issuance (e.g., BRC-20s, runes)
Together, these factors created the illusion of momentum—without the foundational demand typically seen in mature bull markets.
Debunking the “Halving = Bull Market” Myth
For years, a popular mantra in crypto circles has been: “Halving leads to bull market; four-year cycle.”
This belief stems from historical observation: every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a block reward halving, reducing the rate of new supply. In previous cycles (2012, 2016, 2020), these events were followed by massive price increases.
But correlation does not imply causation.
The real driver behind past bull markets wasn’t just the halving—it was the alignment between Bitcoin’s supply shock and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy cycle. Bitcoin was born in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Each halving has coincided roughly with the end of a tightening cycle and the beginning of a Fed rate-cutting phase—exactly when liquidity floods back into risk assets.
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In 2024, although Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving, the Fed’s monetary easing has been delayed—possibly until late 2025 or even 2026. Without this liquidity tailwind, the usual post-halving explosion hasn’t materialized.
So yes—the “four-year bull market” narrative has been effectively debunked for this cycle. It wasn’t wrong because Bitcoin failed; it was wrong because people misunderstood why previous rallies happened.
What This Means for Investors
Does this mean all hope is lost?
Not at all.
In fact, it’s quite the opposite.
The absence of a massive bull run in 2024 could actually set the stage for something even bigger: a true supercycle in 2025–2026, driven not just by supply scarcity but by:
- Accumulation during sideways markets
- Institutional adoption via spot Bitcoin ETFs
- Potential global monetary easing
- Ongoing innovation on Bitcoin (e.g., layer-2 scaling, smart contract capabilities)
These forces could combine to create a more durable and widespread rally than any we’ve seen before—one rooted in real utility and macro support, not just speculation.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Are we currently in a bull market?
A: Not a full-scale bull market. What we’ve seen since late 2023 is better described as a combination of seasonal rallies and short-term asset speculation—not sustained institutional or retail-driven growth.
Q: Why isn’t the 2024 halving causing a bull run like before?
A: Because macroeconomic conditions differ. The Federal Reserve hasn’t started cutting rates yet, so there’s no flood of cheap liquidity boosting risk assets like crypto.
Q: What metrics should I watch to confirm a real bull market?
A: Focus on sustained increases in miner fees (excluding inscriptions), rising spot trading volumes across exchanges, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and on-chain activity from long-term holders.
Q: Could a major bull run still happen?
A: Yes—and it may be delayed until 2025–2026 when Fed policy turns dovish and global liquidity expands again.
Q: How do inscriptions and runes affect Bitcoin’s network?
A: They increase transaction volume but often consist of low-value data writes. While they drive short-term fee spikes, they don’t reflect broad economic usage or long-term value accrual.
Q: Should I sell now or hold for 2025?
A: That depends on your strategy. If you're investing for long-term structural growth—not short-term hype—the current environment may offer accumulation opportunities ahead of a potential 2025–2026 supercycle.
Final Thoughts
The idea that “halving equals bull market” was always an oversimplification. The current cycle proves that Bitcoin’s price is influenced by a complex interplay of supply mechanics, technological developments, and macroeconomic forces.
While we may not be in a full bull market today, the foundation is being laid for something potentially larger and more sustainable. By understanding what’s really driving the numbers—not just what charts appear to show—we can position ourselves ahead of the next wave.
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