The cryptocurrency market has seen a wave of optimism in late May 2025, especially among altcoins. Yet, despite broader bullish sentiment, Axie Infinity (AXS) has struggled to reclaim the $5 mark. With critical on-chain developments and shifting investor behavior, questions are mounting: Is AXS poised for a two-year low? And what do whale movements, futures data, and support levels reveal about its near-term trajectory?
This deep dive explores the key metrics shaping AXS’s price outlook — from upcoming token unlocks and whale sell-offs to futures market dynamics and technical support zones.
🔓 Major Token Unlock Looms on June 20
One of the most significant events influencing AXS’s price action is the scheduled token unlock on June 20, 2025. According to on-chain analytics, this event will release 15.13 million AXS tokens — worth approximately $69 million at current valuations — into circulation.
This will be one of the largest token unlocks in Axie Infinity’s history, and it's already triggering strategic moves among large holders.
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🐋 Whales Begin Preemptive Sell-Off
Data from Santiment shows that crypto whales — defined here as addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million AXS — have already begun reducing their positions ahead of the unlock.
- On June 2, these wallets held a combined 34.66 million AXS.
- By June 5 — just three days later — their holdings dropped to 34.2 million AXS.
- That’s a net sale of 460,000 AXS tokens, valued at around $2.07 million.
This behavior mirrors patterns observed during the previous unlock in May 2023, when whales sold off roughly 1.85 million AXS tokens between May 5 and May 26. Despite a broader market rally following Ripple’s legal victory, AXS fell 22% in that period.
With this upcoming unlock being four times larger than the last, there's growing concern that increased supply could overwhelm demand — especially if other stakeholders follow whales into bearish positioning.
📉 Futures Market Signals Bearish Sentiment
Beyond whale activity, derivatives data paints an equally cautious picture.
According to Coinalyze, AXS futures open interest stood at $50.4 million on June 15**, but has since plummeted by **26%**, dropping to **$49 million by June 25.
What Open Interest Tells Us
Open interest reflects the total number of outstanding derivative contracts. A declining trend typically indicates that traders are closing positions rather than opening new ones.
In this case:
- The drop suggests capital flight from perpetual futures markets.
- Over the past three weeks, an estimated $46 million has exited AXS futures trading.
- This outflow is interpreted as a bearish signal, implying that current holders are hedging or exiting due to anticipated downside risk.
When both large holders and speculative traders reduce exposure simultaneously, it often precedes or accelerates price declines — especially in low-liquidity altcoins like AXS.
📊 Critical Support at $4 — What Happens If It Breaks?
From a technical standpoint, the $4 price level has emerged as a pivotal support zone for AXS.
Data from IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model reveals that approximately 283 addresses purchased 57,420 AXS tokens at an average price of $4.04. This cluster represents a dense concentration of break-even costs — making it a psychological and financial line in the sand.
Scenario 1: $4 Holds
If buyers step in at $4 and stabilize the price:
- Short-term panic may subside.
- A consolidation phase could follow, allowing sentiment to rebuild.
- Any positive catalyst (e.g., game updates, partnerships) might spark a rebound toward $5–$6.
Scenario 2: $4 Fails
A breakdown below $4 could trigger cascading effects:
- Leveraged long positions may liquidate.
- Investors who bought near $4 might panic-sell to cut losses.
- The next meaningful support lies near $2–$2.50, risking a plunge toward multi-year lows.
Historically, once such support zones break, recovery becomes significantly harder without strong fundamental improvements or external market tailwinds.
🔮 Can Bulls Stage a Comeback?
While bearish momentum dominates, bulls aren’t entirely out of options.
A sustained move above $7 could invalidate much of the current pessimism. However, that resistance level is formidable:
- Around 12,110 addresses hold 6 million AXS tokens bought at an average of $27.80.
- Many of these holders have been underwater for over two years.
- If confidence returns, some may take profit or rebalance portfolios upon nearing breakeven — potentially fueling a rally.
But for now, with the token unlock looming and sentiment weak, a breakout above $7 appears unlikely without unexpected catalysts such as:
- Major gameplay or economic model upgrades in Axie Infinity.
- Strategic exchange listings or staking incentives.
- Broader altcoin season revival driven by Bitcoin ETF inflows or Fed policy shifts.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is the June 20 token unlock important for AXS?
A: It releases 15.13 million new AXS tokens (~$69M) into circulation. Such large unlocks often increase selling pressure if demand doesn’t match supply growth — especially when coordinated with whale sell-offs.
Q: Are whales always bearish before token unlocks?
A: Not always, but historically yes in Axie’s case. Whales anticipate dilution and potential price drops, so they often sell ahead to lock in value or reduce risk exposure.
Q: What does falling open interest mean for AXS traders?
A: Declining open interest signals reduced market participation and waning bullish conviction. It often precedes volatility or downtrends as traders exit positions.
Q: Is AXS still part of the play-to-earn (P2E) trend?
A: Yes. Though P2E hype has cooled since 2021–2022, Axie Infinity remains one of the most recognized blockchain games. Its long-term viability depends on sustainable tokenomics and user engagement beyond speculation.
Q: Could AXS rebound if Bitcoin rallies?
A: Possibly. Strong BTC performance often lifts altcoins. However, AXS has underperformed many peers recently, so it may lag unless project-specific improvements emerge.
Q: Where can I track real-time AXS whale movements?
A: Platforms like Santiment, Nansen, and IntoTheBlock offer dashboards for monitoring large wallet transactions and on-chain behavior — essential tools for proactive trading decisions.
💡 Final Outlook: Caution Ahead of Unlock
As June 20 approaches, all eyes are on Axie Infinity’s next move. With whales selling, futures traders exiting, and a massive token unlock imminent, downside risks outweigh upside potential in the short term.
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A break below $4 could send AXS into uncharted bearish territory — possibly testing levels not seen since 2023. Conversely, holding above $4 may set the stage for stabilization and eventual recovery — but only if confidence returns.
For investors:
- Monitor whale wallet flows closely.
- Watch for changes in open interest and funding rates.
- Use stop-loss strategies around key support/resistance levels.
While Axie Infinity remains a landmark project in blockchain gaming, its token economics continue to face scrutiny. Until supply pressures ease and user-driven demand strengthens, AXS may remain vulnerable to further declines.
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- Derivatives market trends
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